Reading LAMR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LAMR free→Reading LAMR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LAMR free→NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that cash flow does not strongly back reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could affect performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact LAMR's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $154.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $154 the market pays 29× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 28× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $111 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $145–$160. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 39% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.61x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.54 → $1.58 (+2.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$75.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$198.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,005.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can stabilize net income after a recent decline.
Confirms:Q2 net income shows improvement, landing above $101.29M.
Disproves:Q2 net income continues to decline, landing below $101.29M.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LAMR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026 , Lamar Advertising Company announced via press release its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of Lamar’s press release is hereby furnished to the Commission and incorporated by reference herein as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$145.00 – $160.00 (median $150.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialized REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LAMR Lamar Advertising Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | low |
IRM Iron Mountain | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | full | moderate |
GLPI Gaming and Leisure Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | full | low |
OUT Outfront Media | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
EPR EPR Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to distribute a quarterly cash dividend of $1.60 per share to stockholders.
Extend the stock and debt repurchase programs through September 30, 2027.
Focus on increasing cash generated from operating activities to support financial stability.
Aim to stabilize net income through operational efficiencies and revenue growth.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow. It shows commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:The company declares the dividend of $1.60 per share for Q3.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend below $1.60 per share.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is key to maintaining the dividend and supporting growth.
Confirms:Cash from operations goes up by over 10% each quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations goes down or stays the same each quarter.
Why it matters: Growth in cash from operations is important. It helps fund the dividend and other needs.
Confirms:Cash from operations is over $147.39M in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities drops below $147.39M in Q2.
Other Events. On May 14, 2026, Lamar Advertising Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.60 per share payable on June 30, 2026 to holders of record of the Company’s Class A common stock and Class B common stock on June 16, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
The filing pertains to an amendment of the equity incentive plan.