Liberty Energy, Inc. (LBRT)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$11.35-13.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LBRT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -50.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 59.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 24 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LBRT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 21, 2026 , Liberty Energy Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. This information is not deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and is not incorporated by reference into any Securities Ac…
Why it matters: More gas use can lower customer fuel costs. It also tests whether Liberty's equipment and software keep a claimed edge as frac markets improve.
Supportive ifLiberty reports natural gas use above 60% of total fleet fuel in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifLiberty reports natural gas use at or below 60%, or says fuel savings fell from the Q3 level.
Why it matters: The agreement calls for power to come online from late 2027 to early 2029. On-time delivery would back the new power business with real output.
Supportive ifLiberty reports that the project starts delivering power in Q4 2027. It stays on the stated schedule through Q1 2029.
Worry ifLiberty reports that the first power date moves past Q4 2027 or later phases move past Q1 2029.
Why it matters: Q3 revenue rose 26% year over year, but adjusted EBITDA fell 6% from Q2. Q4 results will test whether demand offsets seasonal slowdowns and cost pressure.
Supportive ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA exceeds Q3's $142 million, with revenue above Q3's $1.2 billion.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA falls below $142 million and revenue falls below Q3's $1.2 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$252 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $703 loss on $10,000 · 7.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,655 loss on $10,000 · 66.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.