Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Liberty Energy, Inc. (LBRT)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.15-11.21%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.10 → 0.04 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LBRT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain or increase dividend payments | A supporting condition in Liberty Energy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=$0.09 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.09 in next 4 quarters | Dividend per share: $0.09 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$0.09 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 22, 20260.09 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
LBRT is a cyclical energy-services business with growth efforts in distributed power and data center solutions. Its long-term thesis remains supported by delivery on management priorities, but the current state is watchful after a recent earnings miss and a shift to a cautious signal.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 2.73 premium measure and a negative expectations gap. The evidence attributes the valuation difference to re-rating, but model confidence is low; the priced-in assessment says the turbulent sector backdrop alone does not create a high fragility setup.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated: the latest event was a miss, recent momentum weakened, and the estimated miss probability is 41%. Over the multi-year view, revenue growth, a 1.2 GW power-services agreement, reported fuel efficiency, and increased dividends show execution on stated priorities, though recent financial performance is rated neutral.
The next call matters: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers SLB, BKR, and HAL would support the sector tailwind. Misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken that support; the evidence does not establish how durable LBRT’s recent operating progress will be.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LBRT’s thesis balances concrete progress in power services and operations against expensive peer-relative valuation, elevated risk, and weaker recent momentum. The next guidance update and broader energy-sector results are key swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Expand power generation equipment supply via acquisitions |
| It completed acquisitions to expand power equipment supply. |
| Intact |
| No further acquisitions or supply expansion in next 4 quarters |
3 acquisitions in last 4 quarters vs 0 trip threshold Recent M&A events show completed power generation equipment supply contracts with NES-WES, Wärtsilä, and Bergen Engines. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to at least 11% next year | Analysts expect 11% revenue growth next year. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 11% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.87 → $0.04 · observed estimates
$4.75B → $4.88B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.87 | $4,754,489,810 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.87 | $4,754,489,810 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.87 | $4,754,489,810 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.33 | $4,918,552,608 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.33 | $4,918,552,608 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.33 | $4,918,552,608 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.78 | $4,925,077,850 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.78 | $4,925,077,850 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.26 | $4,925,055,650 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.43 | $4,925,077,850 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.34 | $4,925,077,850 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.34 | $4,925,077,850 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.34 | $4,925,077,850 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.17 | $4,925,055,650 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.17 | $4,925,055,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.32 | $4,979,679,850 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.17 | $4,925,055,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.17 | $4,925,055,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.17 | $4,925,055,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.32 | $4,979,679,850 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.17 | $4,925,055,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.17 | $4,925,055,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.17 | $4,925,055,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.17 | $4,925,055,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.17 | $4,925,055,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.17 | $4,925,055,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.17 | $4,979,657,650 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.15 | $4,970,205,306 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.15 | $4,970,205,306 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.15 | $4,970,205,306 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.15 | $4,970,205,306 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.15 | $4,970,205,306 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.15 | $4,970,205,306 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.15 | $4,970,205,306 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.15 | $4,970,205,306 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.15 | $4,970,205,306 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.15 | $4,970,203,105 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.13 | $4,923,936,179 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.10 | $4,899,477,131 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.10 | $4,899,477,131 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.10 | $4,896,040,995 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.10 | $4,896,040,995 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.10 | $4,896,040,995 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.10 | $4,896,040,995 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.10 | $4,896,040,995 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.10 | $4,896,040,995 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.10 | $4,896,040,995 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.10 | $4,896,040,995 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.10 | $4,896,040,995 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.10 | $4,896,040,995 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.10 | $4,896,040,995 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.10 | $4,896,040,995 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.06 | $4,861,674,479 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.06 | $4,861,674,479 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.06 | $4,861,674,479 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.06 | $4,861,591,145 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.06 | $4,861,591,145 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.04 | $4,846,991,145 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.04 | $4,846,991,145 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.05 | $4,846,491,145 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.03 | $4,847,328,388 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.04 | $4,884,921,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.04 | $4,884,921,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.04 | $4,884,921,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.04 | $4,884,921,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.04 | $4,884,921,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.04 | $4,884,921,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.04 | $4,884,921,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.04 | $4,884,921,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.04 | $4,884,921,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.04 | $4,884,921,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.04 | $4,884,921,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.04 | $4,884,921,687 | 7 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.