Liberty Energy, Inc. (LBRT)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.59+1.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue growth to at least 11% next year: FY27 revenue est +8.7% vs 11% target.
Liberty Energy grew revenue 4% year over year to $1.02 billion in Q1 2026. The company keeps increasing dividends, from $0.08 to $0.09 per share. It completed acquisitions to expand power equipment supply. Analysts expect 11% revenue growth next year.
The stock is down 30% from its high and guidance is soft. Free cash flow yield is negative at -5%. The company faces sector headwinds and elevated risk. Earnings estimates have recently been revised down.
The price is about 1% below our fair value near $24, reflecting justified expectations for 11% revenue growth. Our fair value is 31% below the Street median, indicating the market prices in moderate growth but not the Street's optimism.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.09 in next 4 quarters
Breaks if: No further acquisitions or supply expansion in next 4 quarters
YoY revenue growth falls below 11% in FY27
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder in the energy sector. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and a commitment to growth, though risks remain elevated.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, reflecting a justified stance given the company's recent performance. There is a low expectations gap, suggesting that the current valuation is cheap compared to peers.
Fundamentals are likely to continue showing strength, particularly in revenue growth driven by operational execution and technology. However, there is a 25% probability of missing earnings expectations, which adds some near-term risk.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for inflation to reaccelerate and the performance of sector bellwethers like SLB and BKR. Additionally, any cuts to guidance could negatively impact sentiment and estimates.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this view. Tamboran Resources and Liberty Energy plan to extend their partnership. This could lead to more service revenue for Liberty Energy. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Aim to increase revenue through improved utilization and profitability.
Overall, LBRT is positioned well within its sector, but it must navigate potential risks and external factors. Not investment advice.