Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
LCNB Corp. (LCNB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.29+3.15%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.85 → 1.88 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LCNB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Measured loan growth with stable asset quality | The bank aims for disciplined growth with stable asset quality. | Intact | loan growth stalls or asset quality deteriorates materially in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
LCNB is a smaller regional financial company with a growth-and-income mix, not a clear turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, and recent results are strong, but earnings quality is fragile and confidence in the overall read is medium.
The valuation model describes LCNB as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in tag is stretched, so those signals point in different directions. Valuation fell by 12 points recently, and the expectations gap is 0.18; the evidence does not explain that measure further, so how much optimism is embedded remains uncertain.
Near-term results have been strong, including an earnings beat, 2.2% year-over-year loan growth, and higher wealth-management assets and fiduciary income. Management is delivering on growth priorities, but expense discipline is mixed, and the increase in costs tempers the quality of that progress. The near-term miss risk is described as low, though smaller-company size and recent peer misses remain watch points.
The multi-year view depends on continued disciplined growth and whether wealth-management gains translate into durable income without weakening expense control. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while falling rates could weigh on the financial sector. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop, though they would not resolve LCNB’s own execution risks.
Over the next one to three years, LCNB’s growth evidence supports an intact thesis, but fragile earnings quality and uneven cost control make execution important. The valuation signals are mixed, so the expectations gap remains a point to watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in LCNB Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1.63 USD per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $1.23 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.51 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1.63 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20260.51 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain dividend at $0.22 per share quarterly | LCNB keeps a stable dividend of $0.22 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.22 in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.22 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 0.22 USD per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20260.22 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.86 → $1.88 · observed estimates
$0.08B → $0.10B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.86 | $78,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.86 | $78,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.86 | $78,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.86 | $100,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.86 | $100,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.86 | $100,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.86 | $78,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.86 | $78,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.86 | $100,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.86 | $78,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.86 | $78,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.86 | $78,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.86 | $78,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.86 | $78,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.86 | $100,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.86 | $100,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.86 | $78,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.86 | $78,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.86 | $78,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.86 | $100,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.86 | $100,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.86 | $100,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.86 | $100,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.86 | $100,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.86 | $100,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.86 | $100,600,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.85 | $100,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.86 | $100,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.86 | $100,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.88 | $100,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.88 | $100,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.88 | $100,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.88 | $100,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.88 | $100,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.88 | $100,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.88 | $100,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.88 | $100,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.88 | $100,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.88 | $100,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.88 | $100,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.88 | $100,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.88 | $100,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.88 | $100,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.88 | $100,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.88 | $100,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.