LCNB Corp. (LCNB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.53+2.25%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LCNB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
LCNB — private placement
Dated 2026-08-07
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 7, 2026, LCNB Corp. (the “Company”) entered into Subordinated Note Purchase Agreements (collectively, the “Subordinated Note Purchase Agreements”) with certain qualified institutional buyers and accredited investors (collectively, the “Subordinated Note Purchasers”) pursuant to which the Company issued and sold $25,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of its 6.50% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes due 2036 (the “Subordinated Notes…
Why it matters: More charge-offs may show worse asset quality. This can hurt future earnings.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed 0.50% of average loans.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below 0.50% of average loans.
Why it matters: More loan origination helps growth and profits. It shows demand for LCNB's services.
Supportive ifIn Q3, loans made were over $120 million.
Worry ifIn Q3, loans made were below $100 million.
Why it matters: A continued drop in net income would show that profitability is weakening. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 net income falls below $4.4M, which was the last reported figure.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income stabilizes or increases above $4.4M.
Why it matters: A drop in deposits may show customer loss. This can impact LCNB's funding plans.
Worry ifTotal deposits are still above $1.80 billion.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits fall below $1.80 billion.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans may mean asset quality problems. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifNonperforming loans were above $6 million.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans are still below $5 million.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans mean higher credit risk. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifQ3 nonperforming loans exceed 0.35% of total loans.
Less concerning ifQ3 nonperforming loans remain below 0.30%.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the sector. This may impact LCNB's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below 15% in the next earnings release.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above 15%.
Why it matters: A big drop in deposits may show customers leaving. This can raise funding costs.
Worry ifTotal deposits decline more than 5% YoY.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits decline less than 5% YoY.
Why it matters: The next earnings report will show if profitability is improving or declining. This is key for growth.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 exceeds $4.44M, showing recovery from the previous quarter's decline.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q2 is below $4.44M. This shows ongoing profit problems.
Why it matters: An increase would show good capital management and faith in future earnings. Dividends matter for investor returns.
Supportive ifLCNB announces a dividend increase in Q3.
Worry ifLCNB maintains or cuts the dividend in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector, impacting LCNB's performance.
Worry ifLCNB's revenue growth falls below its historical median of 15%.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth is still above average. This shows the sector is strong.
Why it matters: A strong net interest margin shows LCNB can manage interest income well. It shows profit and growth.
Supportive ifQ3 net interest margin is above 3.90%.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin falls below 3.80%.
Why it matters: Growth in Wealth Management assets shows good cross-selling and market growth. This helps long-term revenue.
Supportive ifWealth Management assets grow over 15% each year.
Worry ifWealth Management assets grow less than 12% each year.
Why it matters: Higher net charge-offs may show asset quality problems. This can hurt profit and investor trust.
Worry ifNet charge-offs for Q3 reported above $3 million.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs for Q3 reported below $2 million.
Why it matters: A stable dividend shows LCNB's commitment to giving value to shareholders. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.22.
Worry ifDividend per share is reduced below $0.22.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$125 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $318 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,405 loss on $10,000 · 14.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.