LCNB Corp. (LCNB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$19.53-3.75%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LCNB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -2.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LCNB — officer change
Dated 2026-09-17
EVP and Chief Wealth Officer — Michael R. Miller: The filing announces the scheduled retirement of a senior executive (EVP and Chief Wealth Officer) effective in the future, which is an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss.
Why it matters: Margin growth lifted earnings this year. A drop would weaken that support.
Watch forQ4 tax-equivalent net interest margin is at least 3.9%, near the 3.92% reported in Q3.
Also watch forQ4 tax-equivalent net interest margin falls below 3.7%, down from 3.92% in Q3.
Why it matters: The wealth team is central to a stated growth plan. A clear handoff can help limit disruption to client growth.
Watch forLCNB names a successor or confirms a smooth handoff before Michael R. Miller's scheduled retirement.
Also watch forThe retirement takes effect, but no successor or handoff plan is shared.
Why it matters: Management has stressed cost control, yet expenses rose year over year. Faster cost growth could limit earnings gains.
Worry ifQuarterly non-interest expense rises above $15.6 million. That was the Q3 2026 level.
Less concerning ifQuarterly non-interest expense falls below $15.2 million. That was the Q3 2025 level.
Why it matters: Charge-offs rose sharply in 2026, mostly from a few loans. More losses could weigh on earnings.
Worry ifA later quarter's annualized net charge-offs exceed 0.27% of average loans. The nine-month 2026 rate was 0.27%.
Less concerning ifA later quarter's annualized net charge-offs are at or below 0.17%, the Q3 2026 rate.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $287 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,405 loss on $10,000 · 14.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q3 deposits rose, but a large public funds deposit drove the increase. Other deposits fell year over year.
Worry ifDeposits excluding the $50 million public funds account rise year over year from the Q3 2026 level.
Less concerning ifDeposits excluding that account stay down at least 0.9% year over year, as in Q3 2026.