Lennar (LEN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$83.58-1.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LEN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers
LEN — COO transition
Dated 2026-06-08
Chief Operating Officer — Jim Parker: Jim Parker was promoted to Chief Operating Officer within the company.
Why it matters: A fall in sector revenue growth means Lennar may face challenges.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Retail sales trends affect housing demand. Strong sales could boost Lennar's outlook.
Watch forRetail sales growth reported above 1% month over month in June.
Also watch forRetail sales growth reported below 0% month over month in June.
Why it matters: A higher gross margin shows better cost control. It means more profit.
Supportive ifGross margin on home sales hits about 16% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin on home sales remains below 15.6% in Q3.
Why it matters: This price range shows management's plan to balance sales and prices. It shows how they handle market challenges.
Watch forAverage sales price lands between $375,000 and $380,000.
Also watch forAverage sales price falls below $375,000.
Why it matters: This shows demand for homes and market health. Meeting this target suggests strong consumer interest.
Supportive ifNew orders reported within the range of 21,000 to 22,000 homes.
Worry ifNew orders fall below 21,000 homes, indicating weak demand.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong demand and growth in home deliveries, a key priority for Lennar.
Supportive ifThey plan to deliver about 85,000 homes by the end of FY 2026.
Worry ifDeliveries fall significantly short of 80,000 homes by the end of FY 2026.
Why it matters: Millrose's success as a land-light platform could boost Lennar's growth and profits. It is key to Lennar's change plan.
Supportive ifMillrose announces major deals or partnerships with others.
Worry ifMillrose fails to secure any new deals or partnerships within the next quarter.
Why it matters: This shows if Lennar can keep its financial services stable.
Supportive ifFinancial Services operating earnings fall within the range of $95M to $100M.
Worry ifEarnings fall below $95M. This shows deeper problems in the segment.
Why it matters: Lower SG&A costs show better cost control. This can lead to higher net margins.
Supportive ifSG&A expenses as a percentage of home sales fall within 8.8% to 9.0%.
Worry ifSG&A expenses as a percentage of home sales remain above 9.0%.
Why it matters: A better gross margin is important for making money. It shows how well they save costs and run operations.
Supportive ifGross margin reaches or exceeds 16% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin remains below 15.6% in Q3.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows Lennar can handle market challenges and keep growing.
Supportive ifQ3 home deliveries reported at 21,500 or more.
Worry ifQ3 home deliveries were below 20,500.
Why it matters: This margin shows good cost control. It means operations are efficient.
Supportive ifGross margin reported at or above 16%.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 15.5%.
Why it matters: Exceeding this level shows strong demand and good sales strategies in a tough market.
Supportive ifNew orders reported at 22,000 or more.
Worry ifNew orders reported below 21,000.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$163 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $381 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,204 loss on $10,000 · 42.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.