Leslie's Inc (LESL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.57+4.61%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LESL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LESL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
of this report, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The information and the accompanying exhibit shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission made by the Company, except as shall be expressly s…
Why it matters: Capex is crucial for growth. Meeting or missing guidance will show how well the company is investing.
Watch forCapital spending in Q3 is over $25 million.
Also watch forCapital spending in Q3 is under $20 million.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows management is careful with spending during tough times.
Supportive ifQ3 capital spending stays between $20 million and $25 million.
Worry ifCapital spending goes over $25 million in Q3.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how the company is doing financially. It is a key time to check the company's path.
Watch forEarnings report shows a smaller net loss than $52.5 million reported in Q1 2026.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a larger net loss than $52.5 million reported in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A bigger net loss shows worse financial health and more operational problems.
Worry ifNet loss reported greater than $135.5 million for Q2.
Less concerning ifNet loss reported less than or equal to $135.5 million for Q2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$682 on $10,000 · ±6.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,425 loss on $10,000 · 14.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,533 loss on $10,000 · 95.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Positive sales growth would show recovery from recent drops. It also shows customer interest.
Supportive ifComparable sales growth for Q3 exceeds 0% year over year.
Worry ifSales growth is still negative compared to last year.
Why it matters: This shows that the 'Price Drop' plan is bringing in more customers.
Supportive ifQ2 sales grew by more than 6.6% compared to last year.
Worry ifComparable sales grew by less than 6.6% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Reaffirming guidance shows trust in meeting sales goals despite recent issues.
Watch forManagement reaffirms revenue guidance of $1,100 million to $1,250 million for FY 2026.
Also watch forManagement lowers revenue guidance from $1,100 million to $1,250 million for FY 2026.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial health. It also shows effective cost management.
Supportive ifNet loss reported below $52.5 million.
Worry ifNet loss increases beyond $52.5 million.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA is a key measure of profitability. Results will show if the company can meet its targets.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is over $55 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is under $55 million.
Why it matters: Growing the number of customers is key for future sales. It means the company is keeping customers happy.
Supportive ifCustomer count growth remains at or above 8% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCustomer growth falls below 5% year-over-year in Q2 2026. This suggests customers may be losing interest.
Why it matters: A bigger drop in sales means more trouble making money.
Worry ifComparable sales decline worse than -6.2% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifComparable sales improve or decline less than -6.2% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth may show that Leslie's sales are getting better.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported as positive year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported as negative year over year.