Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU)
NYSEEnergyUraniumSnapshot 2026-11-04
$89.03-3.83%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyUraniumSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.88 → 3.52 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LEU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital spending of $350M to $500M in 2026 | A supporting condition in Centrus Energy Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is $350M to $500M. | Intact | Capital spending falls below $350M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $71.6M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $350M to $500M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202671,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk capacity-expansion and growth case, supported by a favorable sector backdrop. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: expansion and contract milestones are tangible, but earnings quality is fragile and management execution has been volatile.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 1.71 premium, and is tagged as stretched. The evidence points to some expectation of re-rating, but the expectations gap is 0.23 and model confidence is low, so the precise market assumptions are uncertain.
Near term, results may remain uneven: recent financial performance is neutral and below the industry cohort, while earnings surprises have been erratic. Over the multi-year view, capacity spending, the first centrifuge shipment, customer agreements, and the Westerman acquisition show progress, but delivery remains mixed and guidance cuts are a key risk.
The thesis strengthens if LEU continues expanding capacity and turns customer agreements into sustained demand. It weakens if guidance is cut or execution falters; UEC’s earnings and guidance are also useful signs of whether the sector tailwind is holding or fading.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LEU’s case depends on converting expansion and contract milestones into reliable results, while managing high execution risk against an expensive valuation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It is expanding its uranium enrichment plant in Ohio. |
| Improving |
| Expansion progress stalls or reverses in next 12 months |
Qualitative progress confirmed (1st centrifuge shipped, $116M acquisition) First centrifuge shipped to Piketon; Westerman acquired for $116M; HALEU deals signed. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue of $450M to $500M in 2026 | A primary condition in Centrus Energy Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is $450M to $500M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $450M in FY26 | Revenue: $176.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $450M to $500M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026176,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.94 → $3.52 · observed estimates
$0.50B → $0.50B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.94 | $497,497,520 | 6 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.17 | $497,497,520 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.94 | $498,326,680 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.94 | $498,326,680 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.94 | $498,326,680 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.02 | $502,913,780 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.02 | $502,913,780 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.41 | $497,992,660 | 4 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.85 | $487,676,680 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.51 | $497,992,660 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.51 | $497,992,660 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.51 | $497,992,660 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.51 | $497,992,660 | 5 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.66 | $483,519,616 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.74 | $483,491,044 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.63 | $472,780,150 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.74 | $483,491,044 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.74 | $483,491,044 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.75 | $471,521,750 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.75 | $471,521,750 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.74 | $483,491,044 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.74 | $483,491,044 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.74 | $483,491,044 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.74 | $483,491,044 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.74 | $483,491,044 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.74 | $483,491,044 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.87 | $471,500,539 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.87 | $471,500,539 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.87 | $471,500,539 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.87 | $471,500,539 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.87 | $471,500,539 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.89 | $470,173,873 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.89 | $470,173,873 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.89 | $470,173,873 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.89 | $470,173,873 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.90 | $468,138,199 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.90 | $468,138,199 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.90 | $468,138,199 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.90 | $468,138,199 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.90 | $468,138,199 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.90 | $468,138,199 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.90 | $470,442,062 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.90 | $470,442,062 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.85 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.85 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.85 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.85 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.85 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.85 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.88 | $466,866,389 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.85 | $470,443,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.85 | $470,443,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.86 | $470,443,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.86 | $470,443,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.86 | $470,443,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.86 | $470,443,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.86 | $470,443,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.86 | $470,443,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.86 | $470,443,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.86 | $470,443,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.86 | $470,443,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.86 | $470,443,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.86 | $470,443,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.19 | $490,772,105 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.33 | $490,777,988 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.30 | $490,780,341 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.30 | $490,780,341 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.35 | $491,603,870 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.35 | $491,603,870 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.59 | $499,908,726 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.56 | $499,556,094 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.56 | $499,556,094 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.52 | $500,066,621 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.52 | $500,066,621 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.52 | $500,066,621 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.52 | $500,066,621 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.52 | $500,066,621 | 8 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.