Lifevantage Corp. (LFVN)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.25+2.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LFVN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LFVN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-27
and the exhibit hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Why it matters: The new CEO's impact on strategy and performance is crucial. Positive changes could signal a turnaround.
Watch forManagement reports improved sales or brand strength under the new CEO.
Also watch forRevenue keeps falling or problems continue after the CEO transition.
Why it matters: An earnings miss would confirm ongoing challenges. It can affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 earnings report shows a miss compared to what analysts expected.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings report meets or beats what analysts expected.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for Lifevantage. This would help improve its fragile quality status.
Supportive ifConsumer Staples sector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows better control of costs. It also shows more efficient operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q4 is $3.5 million or higher.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q4 is below $3.5 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$202 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $593 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,611 loss on $10,000 · 66.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Active share repurchases can signal management's confidence in the stock. It may support the share price.
Supportive ifThe company bought back over $5 million in shares during Q1 2027.
Worry ifNo share buybacks or a big drop in buyback activity.
Why it matters: Meeting the lower revenue guidance is crucial for the company's growth outlook. It shows if the company can stabilize after recent declines.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reaches at least $43.716M, aligning with the lower end of guidance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls below $43.716M, indicating further decline.
Why it matters: Keeping guidance helps investors trust the company. It also supports future growth.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA remains close to the lower end of the guidance range.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA is much lower than the lowest guidance range.
Why it matters: A new CEO can change strategy and performance. Early signs show how well the transition goes.
Watch forPositive statements from the new CEO about future strategy and growth plans.
Also watch forThe new CEO gives unclear feedback about the company's plans.
Why it matters: Terrence Moorehead's plans may change the company and boost performance.
Watch forMoorehead shares a clear plan with growth goals and new products.
Also watch forMoorehead fails to present a coherent strategy or growth plan.
Why it matters: Revenue is key for Lifevantage. Missing guidance signals ongoing struggles in growth.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 revenue reported below the lower guidance threshold of $43.716M.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2026 revenue meets or exceeds the lower guidance threshold.
Why it matters: The CEO change can affect company plans and staff morale. Clear updates help keep stability.
Watch forManagement shares a clear plan and timeline for the CEO change.
Also watch forThere are no updates about the CEO change. This makes investors worried.
Why it matters: Revenue fell 25.2% in Q3. A rise shows recovery efforts are working.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue shows a year-over-year increase compared to Q3's $43.7 million.
Worry ifQ4 revenue keeps falling compared to last year. This is worse than Q3 results.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show worse sales trends. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ1 revenue decline worse than 25.2% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ1 revenue decline of less than 25.2% year over year.
Why it matters: A lower EBITDA shows ongoing problems in operations. This may affect future plans.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q1 falls below $3 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q1 is above $3 million.
Why it matters: A smooth change to the new CEO could help the company. It may boost performance.
Supportive ifThe new CEO, Terrence Moorehead, gives positive updates on key plans.
Worry ifNegative feedback or delays in CEO transition plans.