Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Legence Corp. (LGN)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$25.41-20.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.68 → 2.65 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LGN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Full year 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA at $480M (midpoint) | Non-GAAP EBITDA guidance also increased to $470M-$490M. | Intact | Full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA falls below $470M | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a fast-growing industrial business with evidence of rising revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and backlog. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management priorities are on track, but recent performance has lagged its industry cohort and risk has risen to high.
The valuation is tagged as justified, with no flagged signs of concentrated fragility, but it trades at a premium to peers. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be demanding; confidence in that reading is low.
Near term, the recent earnings miss and erratic surprises create a risk that results or guidance disappoint again, despite a low stated miss risk. Across the reported quarters, revenue and adjusted EBITDA rose sharply, management raised 2026 guidance twice, and backlog more than doubled, supporting the multi-year growth case if execution continues.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful setback, while continued delivery against the higher 2026 targets would support the thesis. The sector backdrop also matters: continued strength from PWR, FIX, and EME could sustain an industry tailwind, while misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LGN’s thesis rests on turning rapid growth and a larger backlog into continued results, while managing high risk and a challenging sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Legence Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or improve management stability and execution. |
| Intact |
| Significant management disruptions or failure to meet guidance |
Qualitative: Guidance raised to $4.7B-$4.8B; no executive departures LGN raised 2026 guidance on record revenue/backlog. No material management departures; only routine board appointments. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full year 2026 revenue at $4.2B (midpoint) | Legence raised full year 2026 revenue guidance to $4.1B-$4.3B. | Intact | Full year 2026 revenue falls below $4.1B | Revenue: $1.262B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.2B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 20261,262,127,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.03 → $2.65 · observed estimates
$4.92B → $5.46B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.03 | $4,920,932,397 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.03 | $4,920,932,397 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.03 | $4,920,932,397 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.03 | $4,920,932,397 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.03 | $4,920,932,397 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.03 | $4,920,932,397 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.78 | $4,871,763,260 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.78 | $4,871,763,260 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.03 | $4,920,932,397 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.78 | $4,871,763,260 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.78 | $4,871,763,260 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.78 | $4,871,763,260 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.78 | $4,871,763,260 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.78 | $4,871,763,260 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.03 | $4,920,932,397 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.78 | $4,871,763,260 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.03 | $4,920,932,397 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.03 | $4,920,932,397 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.78 | $4,871,763,260 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.78 | $4,871,763,260 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.03 | $4,920,932,397 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.03 | $4,920,932,397 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.03 | $4,920,932,397 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.03 | $4,920,932,397 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.03 | $4,920,932,397 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.03 | $4,920,932,397 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.50 | $5,419,842,124 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.58 | $5,460,312,712 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.58 | $5,460,312,712 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.64 | $5,460,312,712 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.64 | $5,460,312,712 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.64 | $5,460,312,712 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.64 | $5,460,312,712 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.64 | $5,460,312,712 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.64 | $5,460,312,712 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.64 | $5,460,312,712 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.64 | $5,446,151,007 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.64 | $5,446,151,007 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.64 | $5,446,151,007 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.64 | $5,446,151,007 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.64 | $5,446,151,007 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.80 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.80 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.80 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.80 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.80 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.80 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.80 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.80 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.80 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.80 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.80 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.80 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.80 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.80 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.80 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.80 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.80 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.80 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.68 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.68 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.68 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.68 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.68 | $5,446,153,144 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.68 | $5,446,153,144 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.68 | $5,446,153,144 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.68 | $5,446,153,144 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.68 | $5,446,153,144 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.68 | $5,446,153,144 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.68 | $5,446,153,144 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.68 | $5,446,153,144 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.68 | $5,446,153,144 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.68 | $5,446,153,144 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.68 | $5,446,153,144 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.68 | $5,446,153,144 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.68 | $5,446,153,144 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.68 | $5,446,132,932 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.68 | $5,446,132,932 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.68 | $5,446,132,932 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.68 | $5,446,132,932 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.68 | $5,446,132,932 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.68 | $5,446,132,932 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.68 | $5,446,132,932 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.68 | $5,446,132,932 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.68 | $5,446,132,932 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.64 | $5,446,132,932 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.64 | $5,446,132,932 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.64 | $5,446,132,932 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.64 | $5,446,132,932 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.64 | $5,446,132,932 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.64 | $5,446,132,932 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.64 | $5,446,132,932 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.64 | $5,446,132,932 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.64 | $5,446,132,932 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.64 | $5,446,132,932 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.65 | $5,457,251,682 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.65 | $5,457,251,682 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.65 | $5,457,251,682 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.65 | $5,457,251,682 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.65 | $5,457,251,682 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.65 | $5,457,251,682 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.65 | $5,457,251,682 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.65 | $5,457,251,682 | 7 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.