Ligand Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (LGND)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$285.60-1.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LGND
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 44.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LGND — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-14
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 14, 2026, Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”), completed its previously announced merger pursuant to the terms of that certain Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated April 27, 2026, as amended by Amendment No. 1 to the Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated May 16, 2026 (as amended, the “ Merger Agreement ”), by and among the Company, XOMA Royalty Corporation, a Nevada corporation (“ XOMA Royalty ”), Flex…
Why it matters: This termination may change Ligand's future products and finances. It is important to watch its effects.
Worry ifLigand reports a big drop in R&D costs. It may shift focus away from similar programs.
Less concerning ifLigand will keep or increase R&D spending in other good areas, even after the end.
Why it matters: Filspari is a key product for Ligand. Sales growth will indicate market acceptance and revenue potential.
Supportive ifFilspari sales exceed $100 million in the first full quarter after FDA approval.
Worry ifFilspari sales fall below $70 million in the first full quarter after FDA approval.
Why it matters: The new outlook will clarify how the XOMA acquisition boosts Ligand's growth plans. Investors will look for details on revenue and earnings expectations.
Supportive ifThe new outlook shows revenue and earnings that are higher than the current guidance of $8.50-$9.50 EPS.
Worry ifThe outlook fails to show significant growth or lowers previous guidance.
Why it matters: Good integration will show if Ligand can gain the expected benefits from the purchase. This is key for long-term growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they have combined XOMA Royalty assets well. They reached their goals.
Worry ifManagement says there are issues with combining XOMA Royalty. There are delays in getting benefits.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $305 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,407 loss on $10,000 · 14.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This update will clarify the impact of the XOMA acquisition on future growth. Investors will want to see how the new assets will drive revenue and earnings.
Supportive ifManagement gives a clear growth forecast. It shows big revenue from the XOMA assets.
Worry ifManagement does not give a clear growth forecast. They lower their expectations.
Why it matters: Strong royalty revenue growth is important for Ligand's finances. It shows how well its portfolio is doing.
Supportive ifQ3 royalty revenue growth is over 30% from last year. This is due to products like Filspari.
Worry ifQ3 royalty revenue growth is below 20% from last year. This may show problems with product performance.
Why it matters: If revenue keeps growing after the merger, it shows the partnership is working.
Supportive ifRevenue growth is over 10% year-over-year in the next financial report.
Worry ifRevenue growth is below 5% year-over-year, which may show problems with the merger.
Why it matters: Finalizing this merger could enhance Ligand's growth and revenue potential. It shows progress in strategic partnerships.
Supportive ifLook for Ligand or XOMA Royalty to announce the merger is complete.
Worry ifIf the merger is delayed or canceled, it may show problems with the partnership.
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance shows confidence in how the deal will affect earnings.
Supportive ifManagement raises adjusted EPS guidance to more than $9.50 for 2026.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers adjusted EPS guidance to less than $8.50.
Why it matters: Captisol sales trends affect total revenue. A drop could mean problems with customer demand or competition.
Watch forCaptisol sales in Q3 show growth from last year. This means there is strong demand.
Also watch forCaptisol sales drop from last year. This raises worries about market position.
Why it matters: Progress in the partnership could boost Ligand's growth outlook and investor confidence.
Supportive ifA press release confirms milestones or revenue from the partnership.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the partnership's progress over the next quarter.
Why it matters: Cost savings will improve profits. They will support the reasons for the acquisition. This is key for future earnings.
Supportive ifManagement says they will achieve at least $10 million in cost savings from the XOMA acquisition by Q4 2026.
Worry ifManagement says cost savings are less than expected or will be delayed.
Why it matters: Knowing how this ending affects Ligand can help understand its future plans.
Worry ifNo big negative effects on revenue or operations in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifRevenue may drop or problems may arise because the TR-Beta Program is ending.
Why it matters: This outlook will clarify the impact of the XOMA acquisition on Ligand's growth plans.
Supportive ifManagement shares a detailed 5-year growth plan. This plan is better than current expectations.
Worry ifThe outlook fails to provide new growth insights or lowers previous expectations.
Why it matters: This acquisition helps Ligand grow. It adds over 120 assets. This can boost revenue.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close in Q3 2026. It will increase EPS right away.
Worry ifThe acquisition does not close on time or fails to meet regulatory approvals.
Why it matters: Growth in royalty revenue is key for keeping investor trust. It shows the benefits of the XOMA acquisition.
Supportive ifRoyalty revenue growth exceeds 30% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRoyalty revenue growth falls below 20% year-over-year in Q3 2026.