Reading LKQ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LKQ free→Reading LKQ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LKQ free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 41% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $26.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $26 LKQ trades at 9× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $45 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 42% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.95x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.78 → $0.71 (-8.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 8 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$113.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$270.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,623.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The consumer price index affects consumer spending and inflation. This can impact LKQ's revenue.
Confirms one read:CPI data shows inflation below 3%.
Confirms the other:CPI data shows inflation above 3%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LKQ yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, LKQ Corporation (the "Company") issued a press release regarding its first quarter 2026 financial results and 2026 financial outlook. A copy of the Company's press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report and is incorporated herein by reference. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Discretionary (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LKQ LKQ Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | full | moderate |
SN SharkNinja | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
H Hyatt | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 20 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth across the company.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Focus on enhancing gross profit through strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Better operating income is important for the company's finances. It affects how much money they make.
Confirms:Operating income goes up by over 10% from Q1.
Disproves:Operating income declines or grows less than 10% compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Improving revenue growth shows the company is on track with its growth goals. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth stays below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: An increase in gross profit margin shows better cost management and pricing power. This can boost investor sentiment.
Confirms:Gross profit margin increases by more than 1% compared to Q1.
Disproves:Gross profit margin decreases or stays flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: A stable margin shows good pricing and cost control. This is key for profit.
Confirms:Gross profit margin is staying steady above 38%.
Disproves:Gross profit margin is falling below 36%.