Limoneira Co. (LMNR)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.99-0.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LMNR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 135.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 123.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
LMNR — strategy / product update — Material Impairments
Dated 2026-08-17
Material Impairments As previously disclosed by the Company in the Current Report on Form 8-K, as filed with the Commission on April 20, 2026, the Company determined on April 14, 2026 that, as a result of the Terminated Sale Transaction, it would recognize an impairment of property, plant and equipment to be recorded in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, which was estimated to be approximately $9,300,000. On August 17, 2026, the Company determined that as a result of the transactions con…
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is doing well. It gives investors confidence in cash flow.
Supportive ifManagement states the dividend per share will stay the same next quarter.
Worry ifManagement announces a cut in the dividend per share.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue in Q3 would show recovery from recent drops and better operations.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue exceeds $23.9 million reported in Q2.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls below $23.9 million.
Why it matters: Updates on this venture will show progress in making more money.
Watch forAgromin joint venture begins operations in the second half of fiscal year 2027.
Also watch forDelays in the launch or missing EBITDA goals are concerns.
Why it matters: An increase in avocado volume guidance shows Limoneira can grow. This is important for future money.
Supportive ifManagement says avocado volume will go up by at least 10%.
Worry ifNo increase in avocado volume guidance or a decrease in guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$107 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $243 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,415 loss on $10,000 · 24.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Ongoing revenue drops could show bigger problems in the business and market.
Worry ifAgribusiness revenues were less than $22.5 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifAgribusiness revenues were more than $22.5 million in Q3.
Why it matters: This project could make a lot of money. It may also use land better.
Supportive ifThe Agromin joint venture is now running and making money.
Worry ifJoint venture faces delays or fails to generate expected revenue.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It can comfort investors during losses.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.075 for the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend per share is cut below $0.075.
Why it matters: Updates on M&A can impact company strategy and financial health. It may affect stock performance.
Worry ifNew M&A activity is announced. This strengthens the company's position.
Less concerning ifThere are more terminations or delays in M&A activity.
Why it matters: A rise in lemon sales would show the Sunkist partnership is working.
Supportive ifQ3 lemon sales were over 1 million cartons.
Worry ifQ3 lemon sales were under 1 million cartons.
Why it matters: If the company meets or beats this guidance, it shows strong avocado growth. This means their farming plans are working.
Supportive ifQ3 avocado volume guidance meets or exceeds 6.5 million pounds.
Worry ifQ3 avocado volume guidance falls below 5.5 million pounds.
Why it matters: This sale helps Limoneira make money from assets they do not need. It will also help their finances and growth plans.
Supportive ifThe sale of Windfall Farms closes on September 15, 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe sale is delayed or fails to close on September 15, 2026.