El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.37+2.47%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LOCO
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 LOCO trades at 14× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $18 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcff | 12M | $43.84 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $16.15 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $25.61 | 11.1 | 2.33 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $31.23 | 22.9 | 1.36 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 9% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 13.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $0.71/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $23.19 |
| 21.5 |
| 1.08 |
| ntm analyst |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $15.30 | 0.9 | 16.64 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $1.77 | 1.6 | 1.10 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $11.66 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $16.33 | 14.8 | 1.10 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $20.06 | 16.9 | 1.19 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $45.40 | 22.9 | 1.98 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $58.27 | 22.9 | 2.54 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |