El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.47+5.92%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LOCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LOCO — earnings in line
Dated 2026-11-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2026, El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing certain financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilitie…
Why it matters: The company raised its profit range, but the priority data marks progress as mixed. Q3 results will test that range.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA keeps the company on pace to finish 2026 within its $68-$70 million range.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA makes the $68 million low end unlikely. Or management cuts the range.
Why it matters: LOCO raised its 2026 sales range after two strong quarters. Q3 sales will show if growth stays on track.
Watch forQ3 system-wide comparable sales grow enough to keep the 2026 result within the 3.5%-4.5% range.
Also watch forQ3 sales fall enough to put the 2026 result below 3.5%, or management cuts the sales range.
Why it matters: Management lowered its spending range from $37-$40 million. The next update will show whether planned spending stays within the new range.
Watch forManagement keeps its 2026 capital spending range at $33-$37 million. Reported spending stays within that range.
Also watch forManagement raises the range above $37 million. Or it reports spending above $37 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$110 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $303 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,808 loss on $10,000 · 18.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.