El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.37+2.47%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LOCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers
LOCO — officer change
Dated 2026-05-29
The filing is about a proposed amendment to the Equity Incentive Plan, not a management change.
Why it matters: A big rise may show inefficiencies and hurt profits.
Worry ifGeneral and administrative expenses go up by more than 15% from last year.
Less concerning ifGeneral and administrative expenses rise by 10% or less from last year.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a shift in the declining trend for the sector. It could show that El Pollo Loco is gaining traction in a tough market.
Supportive ifEl Pollo Loco reports revenue growth of more than 0% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program may show management's trust in the stock.
Supportive ifThe company bought back shares using the $40 million buyback program.
Worry ifNo updates or signs of share repurchases.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how much money the company expects to make. Strong guidance can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal year 2026 is raised by more than 10%.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal year 2026 is cut by more than 5%.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key indicator of ongoing sales momentum. A drop below 3.5% could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ3 restaurant sales growth was below 3.5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 restaurant sales growth was above 4.5%.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how profitable a company is. If it falls, there may be problems.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $68 million for fiscal year 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA was above $70 million for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Capital spending reflects growth plans. A drop could signal reduced expansion efforts.
Worry ifCapital spending guidance was below $33 million for fiscal year 2026.
Less concerning ifCapital spending guidance was above $37 million for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Franchise revenue growth is key for company health. Negative growth may show franchisee issues.
Worry ifFranchise revenue growth reported as negative year over year.
Less concerning ifFranchise revenue growth reported as positive year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$122 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $301 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,380 loss on $10,000 · 13.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.