Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.46-0.06%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.11 → 1.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LOCO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA between $67.5 million and $69.5 million in FY26 | Profit stays strong with adjusted EBITDA near $68 million in 2026. | Improving | adjusted EBITDA falls below $67.5 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a restaurant operator with a recovery and execution-driven long-term thesis, rather than a clearly established durable compounder. The thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, though confidence has eased from high to medium.
The valuation evidence describes LOCO as cheap versus peers, with a justified priced-in assessment and low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is medium, so the evidence on what the market assumes is not strong enough for a precise conclusion.
Near term, management is delivering on comparable sales growth: results were 5.8% in the first quarter and 3.9% in the second, and full-year guidance was raised to 3.5%-4.5%. Adjusted EBITDA guidance also rose, though execution is rated mixed, and planned capital spending was narrowed. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but the smaller-company profile and a deep past miss remain cautions.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on sustaining sales growth and delivering the raised guidance without a reversal that could hurt management credibility. Sector conditions also matter: continued strength from restaurant bellwethers could support the backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from them could remove that support. The CEO transition is another factor to monitor, though the evidence labels the event neutral.
For the 1-3 year view, LOCO’s improving operating results support an intact thesis, but mixed execution signals and medium confidence leave meaningful uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Capital spending is controlled near $38 million to support growth. |
| Broken |
| capital spending exceeds $40 million or falls below $37 million in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $8.479M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $37M to $40M capital spending. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20268,479,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share repurchase program authorizing up to $40 million | A supporting condition in El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Authorization of $40 million buyback program. | Intact | share buyback program is canceled or reduced significantly | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
System-wide comparable restaurant sales growth of 2.0% to 4.0% in FY26 | A primary condition in El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 2.0% to 4.0% comparable sales growth. | Intact | comparable sales growth falls below 2.0% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Subsequent to quarter end, on August 4, 2026, the Company amended its $150.0 million credit facility, extending the term to August 4, 2031.” “Subsequent Events Subsequent to quarter end, the Company paid down an additional $4.0 million on its $150.0 million credit facility, resulting in outstanding borrowings of $26.0 million as of July 29, 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.08 → $1.11 · observed estimates
$0.52B → $0.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.08 | $524,080,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.08 | $524,080,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.08 | $524,080,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.08 | $524,080,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.08 | $524,080,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.08 | $524,080,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.08 | $524,080,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.08 | $524,080,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.08 | $524,080,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.08 | $524,080,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.08 | $524,080,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.08 | $524,080,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.08 | $524,080,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.08 | $524,080,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.08 | $524,080,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.08 | $524,080,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.09 | $524,012,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.09 | $524,012,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.08 | $524,080,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.08 | $524,080,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.08 | $524,080,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.08 | $524,080,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.08 | $524,080,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.08 | $524,080,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.08 | $524,080,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.08 | $524,080,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.11 | $524,706,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.11 | $525,191,143 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.