Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$152.67+0.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LOPE
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $153 LOPE trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median — but our blended $175 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $100–$200. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $192.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $292.14 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $298.66 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $74.50 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$100.00 – $200.00 (median $192.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-07-31
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $0.16/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $150.79 |
| 15.1 |
| 9.97 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $120.17 | 10.4 | 10.93 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $148.77 | 16.1 | 9.25 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $150.79 | 15.1 | 9.97 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $35.76 | 0.8 | 43.56 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $58.60 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $153.03 | 15.1 | 10.12 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $186.54 | 16.1 | 11.60 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $181.13 | 15.1 | 11.98 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $41.09 | 0.8 | 50.05 | guidance | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $216.91 | 16.1 | 13.48 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $193.22 | 15.1 | 12.78 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $43.83 | 0.8 | 53.39 | guidance | medium |