Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$152.67+0.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LOPE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LOPE — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-24
CFO — Daniel E. Bachus: The CFO was placed on paid administrative leave due to a governmental investigation, representing a significant disruption to senior management despite the appointment of an interim successor.
Why it matters: A big drop would show cash flow problems. This would affect future growth and stability.
Worry ifCash from operations dropped a lot compared to past quarters.
Less concerning ifCash from operations was steady or went up from previous quarters.
Why it matters: If it falls below this level, it shows problems with revenue growth. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifService revenue reported between $260 million and $264 million for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifService revenue exceeds $264 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in enrollments shows problems with keeping and attracting students.
Worry ifGCU enrollments fall below 132,000 in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifGCU enrollments increase or stabilize above 132,000 in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Operating income growth below this level may indicate issues in cost management. This could affect future earnings.
Worry ifOperating income growth reported below 5% year over year in Q2.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth stays above 5% year over year in Q2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$121 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $327 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,801 loss on $10,000 · 38.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important. It helps with managing money and funding growth.
Supportive ifCash from operations was over $130 million.
Worry ifCash from operations was under $88 million.
Why it matters: This will show if the company is meeting its goal to increase revenue growth. Strong growth signals success in its strategies.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: This revenue range will show if the company continues its growth trend. Meeting or exceeding this range indicates strong enrollment and service performance.
Supportive ifQ3 service revenue was over $270.5 million.
Worry ifQ3 service revenue was under $268.5 million.
Why it matters: Enrollment growth is important for revenue. A big increase would show management's strategies are working.
Supportive ifUniversity partner enrollments grew by more than 7.6% year over year.
Worry ifUniversity partner enrollments grew by less than 7.6% year over year.