Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$150.67+1.30%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LOPE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LOPE — earnings in line
Dated 2026-11-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On November 4, 2026, Grand Canyon Education, Inc. reported its results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The press release dated November 4, 2026 is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Why it matters: The CFO was placed on leave due to a government probe. A clear update may show how leadership risk is changing.
Watch forGCE names a permanent CFO and reports that the government probe has ended without new charges or action.
Also watch forGCE reports new charges, a wider probe, or another senior finance leader's departure tied to the probe.
Why it matters: A new site can add students and revenue. GCE had 47 sites at June 30, 2026.
Supportive ifGCE confirms it opened one additional site in Fall 2026 and reports new student recruiting there.
Worry ifGCE reports that the Fall 2026 site did not open, or that it is not recruiting students.
Why it matters: Cash and investments fell by $25.6 million in the first half. More cash use for buybacks and capital spending could deepen the drop.
Worry ifA later report shows less than $274.5 million in unrestricted cash and investments.
Less concerning ifA later report shows unrestricted cash and investments at or above $274.5 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$96 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $319 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,604 loss on $10,000 · 26.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.