Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$122.25-18.86%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.31 → 11.31 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LOPE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations grows to at least $88 million | Cash from operations also grows, hitting $88.2M in early 2026. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $75 million in next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $108.647M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= $88 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 30, 2026108,647,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented education services business, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry. Its long-term thesis is intact, but confidence has eased from high to medium and the risk assessment is elevated.
Valuation is roughly in line with peers, and the evidence labels expectations as justified rather than fragile. The expectations gap is slightly negative, but the snapshot gives limited detail on what investors specifically assume.
Near-term results show progress on enrollment and service revenue, while operating income and margins have also improved. Liquidity has declined as share repurchases and capital spending exceeded cash from operations, and a CFO transition adds uncertainty; a guidance cut is a stated risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued university partner enrollment growth, site expansion, and margin improvement without further strain on liquidity. Sector bellwethers’ results and guidance could signal whether the sector tailwind continues or fades.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the business setup remains supported by solid operating progress, but liquidity, guidance, and sector signals are important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company manages costs well and steadily increases earnings per share to about $10 in 2026. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS falls below $9.0 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $1.67 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $9.69. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20261.67 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves to at least $95 million in recent quarters | Profit rises with operating income improving from $51.8M to $95.5M in recent quarters. | Intact | Operating income falls below $80 million in next 4 quarters | Operating income: $51.466M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $95 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202651,466,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $1.18 billion in FY26 | Grand Canyon Education grows revenue about 6% a year, reaching $1.18 billion in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.10 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $267.346M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.18 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026267,346,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.16 → $11.31 · observed estimates
$1.23B → $1.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.16 | $1,233,158,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.16 | $1,233,158,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.16 | $1,233,158,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.16 | $1,233,158,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.16 | $1,233,158,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.16 | $1,233,158,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.16 | $1,233,158,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.16 | $1,233,158,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.16 | $1,233,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.32 | $1,240,378,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.32 | $1,240,378,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.32 | $1,240,378,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.32 | $1,240,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.32 | $1,240,378,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.32 | $1,240,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.32 | $1,240,378,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.32 | $1,240,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.32 | $1,240,378,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.32 | $1,240,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.32 | $1,240,378,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.32 | $1,240,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.32 | $1,240,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.32 | $1,240,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.32 | $1,240,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.32 | $1,240,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.32 | $1,240,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.32 | $1,240,211,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.32 | $1,240,211,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.32 | $1,240,211,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.32 | $1,240,211,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.32 | $1,240,211,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.32 | $1,240,363,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.32 | $1,240,363,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.32 | $1,240,363,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.32 | $1,240,363,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.32 | $1,240,363,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.32 | $1,240,363,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.32 | $1,240,363,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.32 | $1,240,363,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.32 | $1,240,363,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.32 | $1,240,363,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.32 | $1,240,363,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.32 | $1,240,363,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.31 | $1,239,855,600 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.