Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Larimar Therapeutics, Inc. (LRMR)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.32-15.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LRMR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sufficient cash and capital to fund operations through FY27 | A supporting condition in Larimar Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain cash > $100 million through FY27. | Intact | cash falls below $50 million before FY27 | Cash and cash equivalents: $92.687M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain cash > $100 million through FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Date unavailable92,687,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative biotech investment, not an established earnings compounder: LRMR is loss-making and carries high risk. The thesis is intact, with management progressing toward a 2027 launch, but confidence in the evidence snapshot is low.
The snapshot provides no valuation or expectations data, so whether LRMR is cheap or expensive versus peers and what the market already assumes cannot be assessed. The company’s losses and reliance on future regulatory and commercial progress are clear, but the evidence does not show how much of that is reflected in valuation.
Near term, results may remain difficult to read: recent earnings beats are positive signals, while the company remains loss-making and the industry has a high rate of misses. Management initiated a rolling submission for accelerated approval in June 2026 and reported study data showing sustained skin FXN levels with directional clinical improvements; completing the submission in the second half of 2026 remains a key execution step. Management continues to target a U.S. launch in the first half of 2027, contingent on approval.
The multi-year view hinges on completing the regulatory submission, obtaining approval, and preparing for the planned launch. A guidance cut or a weaker jobs trend could add near-term pressure, while continued strength among healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop. The evidence does not establish how those sector signals translate to LRMR’s business.
Over the next one to three years, LRMR’s thesis rests on turning clinical and regulatory progress into an approved product and launch, while losses and high execution risk remain central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Reduction in net loss per share | A primary condition in Larimar Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss improves from -$1.61 in FY26 to less negative in FY27. | Intact | EPS loss worsens or remains flat beyond FY27 | Diluted EPS: $-0.30 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss improves from -$1.61 in FY26 to less negative in FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026-0.3 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Larimar achieves ~$200 million revenue in FY26 | A primary condition in Larimar Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$200 million. | Intact | revenue falls below $150 million in FY26 | Revenue: $0 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$200 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 20260 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.22 → $-1.17 · observed estimates
$0.06B → $0.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.22 | $57,069,647 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.22 | $57,069,647 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.22 | $57,069,647 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.22 | $57,069,647 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.22 | $57,069,647 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.22 | $57,069,647 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.18 | $57,064,670 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.18 | $57,064,670 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.22 | $57,069,647 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.18 | $57,064,670 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.18 | $57,064,670 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.18 | $57,064,670 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.18 | $57,064,670 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.22 | $57,069,647 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.22 | $42,192,834 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.13 | $52,858,530 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.13 | $52,858,530 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.13 | $52,858,530 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.06 | $41,682,340 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.22 | $42,192,834 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.22 | $42,192,834 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.22 | $42,192,834 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.22 | $42,192,834 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.22 | $42,192,834 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.22 | $42,192,834 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.22 | $42,192,834 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.22 | $41,704,652 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.18 | $41,741,016 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.18 | $41,741,016 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.18 | $41,741,016 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.18 | $41,741,016 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.18 | $41,741,016 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.18 | $41,741,016 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.18 | $41,741,016 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.18 | $41,741,016 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.18 | $41,741,016 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.18 | $41,741,016 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.18 | $41,741,016 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.18 | $41,741,016 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.18 | $41,741,016 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.18 | $41,741,016 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.18 | $41,741,016 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.18 | $41,741,016 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.18 | $41,741,016 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.18 | $41,741,043 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.18 | $41,741,043 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.18 | $41,741,043 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.18 | $41,741,043 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.18 | $41,741,043 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.18 | $41,741,043 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.18 | $41,741,043 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.18 | $41,741,043 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.18 | $41,741,043 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.17 | $41,121,847 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.