Landstar System (LSTR)
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$177.92+2.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LSTR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 33.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
LSTR — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-06
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 30, 2026, Landstar System, Inc. (the “Company”) and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Landstar System Holdings, Inc. (“LSHI”), entered into a Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement among the Company, LSHI, certain subsidiaries of LSHI as subsidiary guarantors, the lenders named therein and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as administrative agent (the “Restated Credit Agreement”). The Restated Credit Agreement amends and restates the existing second…
Why it matters: Clement's leadership may boost growth and improve customer ties. This could affect future revenue.
Supportive ifPositive revenue growth trends follow Clement's strategies in Q3.
Worry ifRevenue growth stops or falls after Clement's appointment.
Why it matters: Strong truck revenue growth shows Landstar can grow its services faster.
Supportive ifQ3 truck revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 truck revenue growth is below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Bill Clement's experience may help Landstar grow and build customer ties. His role is key for the company’s plans.
Supportive ifClement gets positive feedback on his strategies and plans in the first three months.
Worry ifThere is no progress or negative feedback on Clement's plans in the first three months.
Why it matters: Steady dividend growth shows strong finances and care for shareholders. It shows Landstar can make cash.
Supportive ifDividends per share increase by more than 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifDividends per share increase by less than 10% or remain unchanged.
Why it matters: Clement's experience may help Landstar grow in key areas and special services.
Supportive ifBill Clement's actions lead to more money coming in within six months.
Worry ifNo clear growth in revenue after Clement took the job.
Why it matters: The new CCO's plan could greatly affect growth and customer relationships.
Watch forPositive updates on growth initiatives from the new CCO within three months.
Also watch forNo updates or negative feedback on the new CCO's strategy.
Why it matters: An increase shows progress in making more money. This is a key focus for management.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up each year compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifOperating income goes down each year compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Higher claims costs may hurt profits and operating income in the next quarters.
Worry ifClaims costs remain stable or decrease in Q3 despite the Montgomery decision.
Less concerning ifClaims costs rise a lot because of the Montgomery decision.
Why it matters: Changes in truck revenue per load can show shifts in pricing power and demand. This matters in the transportation market.
Watch forTruck revenue per load increases above 6% year over year.
Also watch forTruck revenue per load decreases below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: The Montgomery decision may raise claims costs. This could hurt profits. We will watch how Landstar handles risk.
Worry ifA report shows claims costs rise a lot because of the Montgomery decision.
Less concerning ifClaims costs stay the same or go down even with the Montgomery decision.
Why it matters: More insurance claims can hurt profits. Management's view will show future cost issues.
Watch forManagement sees a positive trend in claims costs or how often they happen.
Also watch forManagement notes that claims costs or how often they happen are getting worse.
Why it matters: The industrial sector is growing up. Faster revenue growth could help Landstar.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up above 8% each year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Stable sector growth could help Landstar's revenue. It may show a recovery is starting.
Watch forSector revenue growth stabilizes above 3% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth declines below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes might affect Landstar's money management and how it uses its funds.
Watch forThe new credit agreement terms are good for Landstar's business.
Also watch forThe new credit agreement terms are bad or too strict.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that Landstar is growing its business. This helps the management's plan.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 15% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is 15% or lower compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Higher operating income growth shows Landstar can make more money. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifOperating income growth is over 15% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifOperating income growth is 15% or lower compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: A dividend increase would show Landstar cares about its shareholders. This can make investors feel good.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above the current $0.44 per share.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced in Q3.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$143 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $361 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,486 loss on $10,000 · 24.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.