Landstar System (LSTR)
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$145.64-3.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LSTR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LSTR — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-06
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 30, 2026, Landstar System, Inc. (the “Company”) and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Landstar System Holdings, Inc. (“LSHI”), entered into a Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement among the Company, LSHI, certain subsidiaries of LSHI as subsidiary guarantors, the lenders named therein and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as administrative agent (the “Restated Credit Agreement”). The Restated Credit Agreement amends and restates the existing second…
Why it matters: Landstar added 165 net BCO trucks in Q3, its strongest quarterly gain since Q3 2021. More additions would show the network is still growing.
Supportive ifLandstar adds more net BCO trucks in Q4, after adding 165 in Q3.
Worry ifLandstar reports zero or fewer net BCO truck additions in Q4.
Why it matters: Variable contribution rose 25% in Q3. It tracks revenue left after key shipment costs, before other costs like insurance.
Supportive ifQ4 variable contribution is higher than a year ago. This extends Q3's 25% year-over-year gain.
Worry ifQ4 variable contribution is the same as or lower than in the year-ago quarter.
Why it matters: Truck revenue rose 29% in Q3, while loads rose only 3%. A smaller gain in revenue per load could slow growth.
Watch forQ4 truck revenue per load remains above the year-ago quarter, and truck loads also grow year over year.
Also watch forQ4 truck revenue per load falls below the year-ago quarter, or truck loads turn negative year over year.
Why it matters: Q3 costs rose to $55.3 million from $33.0 million a year earlier. More claim costs can weigh on operating income.
Worry ifQ4 insurance and claim costs are at least $55.3 million, or the company reports further adverse reserve changes.
Less concerning ifQ4 insurance and claim costs fall below $55.3 million and no new adverse reserve changes are reported.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$126 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $346 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,841 loss on $10,000 · 38.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The board declared a $0.44 quarterly dividend. The payment is a direct test of its stated plan to keep paying quarterly dividends.
Supportive ifLandstar pays $0.44 per share on December 8 to holders of record on November 17.
Worry ifLandstar reports that the December 8 payment was cut, delayed, or not made.