Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Pulmonx Corp. (LUNG)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.56-9.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LUNG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain gross margin at 75% for 2026 | Pulmonx aims to keep its gross margin at 75% in 2026. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 70% in FY26 | Gross margin: 76.19% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 75%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 202676.194438 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk, loss-making medical technology business with a possible recovery story, not yet a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis remains intact, but evidence is mixed and confidence is medium.
The valuation model describes LUNG as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 0.52 peer premium and low confidence, so the valuation signal is not clear-cut. The expectations gap is slightly negative, and the priced-in assessment is tagged justified with low fragility, suggesting the current setup does not rest on unusually fragile assumptions.
Near term, revenue growth may remain uneven: Q3 revenue rose year over year after two quarters of declines. Lower operating expenses, a narrower net loss, and a higher gross-margin outlook show progress, though the company remains loss-making. The next guidance update and weaker employment data are risks; the miss watch is quiet, but smaller size and recent peer misses still matter.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on commercial execution sustaining year-over-year revenue growth while cost control and gross margins hold. A guidance cut or further labor-market weakness would add pressure, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
For a 1 to 3 year view, LUNG has improving cost and margin evidence but has not yet shown a steady revenue recovery or consistent profitability. The thesis stays intact, with execution and guidance as key tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Pulmonx Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is <= $115M. |
| Intact |
| Operating expenses exceed $120M in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue between $90M and $92M in 2026 | A primary condition in Pulmonx Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is $90M to $92M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $85M in FY26 | Revenue: $22.835M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $90M to $92M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 202622,835,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.04 → $-0.92 · observed estimates
$0.10B → $0.10B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.04 | $98,072,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.04 | $98,072,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.04 | $98,072,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.04 | $98,077,560 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.04 | $98,077,560 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.04 | $98,077,560 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.04 | $98,072,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.97 | $97,934,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.96 | $98,320,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.96 | $98,314,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.94 | $98,314,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.94 | $98,314,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.94 | $98,320,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.94 | $98,320,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.94 | $98,320,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.94 | $98,314,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.94 | $98,314,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.94 | $98,320,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.94 | $98,320,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.94 | $98,314,200 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.94 | $98,320,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.94 | $98,320,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.94 | $98,320,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.94 | $98,320,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.94 | $98,320,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.94 | $98,320,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.94 | $98,328,120 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.92 | $98,588,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.92 | $98,588,800 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.92 | $98,588,800 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.92 | $98,588,800 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.92 | $98,588,800 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.92 | $98,588,800 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.92 | $98,588,800 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.92 | $98,588,800 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.