Livewire Group, Inc. (LVWR)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.28+11.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LVWR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 845.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 24.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 821.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
LVWR — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…
Dated 2026-07-29
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On July 23, 2026, LiveWire Group, Inc. (the “Company”) received notice (the “Notice”) from the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) that as of July 22, 2026 it was not in compliance with the continued listing standard set forth in Section 802.01C of the NYSE’s Listed Company Manual (“Section 802.01C”) because the average closing price of the Company’s Common Stock (the “Common Stock”) was less…
Why it matters: Growth in electric motorcycle sales is important. It helps with revenue and market share.
Supportive ifElectric motorcycle unit sales increase year over year by more than 300% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifElectric motorcycle unit sales grow by less than 200% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping a 76% market share is key for leading in electric motorcycles.
Supportive ifMarket share remains at or above 76% in the U.S. electric motorcycle segment.
Worry ifIf market share drops below 76%, it shows a loss of competitiveness.
Why it matters: Cutting operating losses is key. It helps financial health and boosts investor trust.
Supportive ifOperating loss decreases by more than $3 million in Q3 2026 compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifOperating loss changes by less than $3 million in Q3 2026 from Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Better free cash flow means better financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifFree cash flow improves by more than 10% in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow worsens or shows no improvement in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$453 on $10,000 · ±4.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,242 loss on $10,000 · 12.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,956 loss on $10,000 · 89.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The partnership is key for growth. Any positive updates could signal progress in expanding the business.
Supportive ifA press release about new projects or products from the Dust Motorcycles partnership.
Worry ifNo updates or bad news about the partnership's progress.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows good market reach and product acceptance.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue from electric motorcycles grows by at least 20% each year.
Worry ifRevenue from electric motorcycles fails to grow or declines year over year.
Why it matters: The S4 Honcho is key to expanding LiveWire's product line and market reach.
Supportive ifFirst units of the S4 Honcho arrive at retail locations by the end of summer 2026.
Worry ifProduction delays push the S4 Honcho launch beyond the expected timeline.
Why it matters: Following rules is important for keeping the NYSE listing and trust from investors.
Worry ifAverage share price exceeds $1.00 for 30 consecutive trading days.
Less concerning ifIf the share price stays below $1.00 for a long time, it may get delisted.
Why it matters: Doing well with integration can improve products and help in the market.
Supportive ifDust-branded products launched by the end of 2026.
Worry ifIntegration delays or failure to launch new products by the end of 2026.