Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
MAIA Biotechnology Inc (MAIA)
AMEXHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.04-8.77%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
AMEXHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.11 → 1.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MAIA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Raise 20 million shares in public offering | The company raised 20 million shares in early 2026. | Intact | failure to complete the 20 million share offering by 2026-Q1 | 20,000,000 shares issued vs 20,000,000 target March 2026 filings confirm the launch and pricing of the 20 million share public offering. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 recent disclosures. Management completed a $33 million equity raise in March 2026 to fund the Phase 3 trial and terminated the ATM sales agreement in May 2026. These actions reflect active capital allocation efforts to support clinical development. The trajectory shows delivering on financing needs but also a shift away from ATM sales. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology business, not an established earnings compounder. The thesis is in a watch state, with low confidence, high risk, and losses that have continued to worsen.
The evidence snapshot does not provide valuation measures or a clear account of what the market assumes, so valuation and the expectations gap cannot be assessed. The stock’s recent price reaction is described as down, but that alone does not show what expectations are priced in.
Near term, management has funded the planned Phase 3 ateganosine trial and begun expanding the Phase 2 THIO-101 trial in the U.S., but both priorities show mixed progress. Operating losses and cash burn worsened through 2026-Q2, and the smaller company’s near-term results carry elevated risk. Over the multi-year view, trial progress is central, while continued losses remain a key constraint.
The thesis hinges on execution of the ateganosine Phase 3 trial and the THIO-101 expansion, including the expected interim Phase 3 data next year. It also depends on whether MAIA can manage cash burn, and on broader Healthcare-sector conditions: strong results from sector bellwethers could support the backdrop, while weaker results or a weakening jobs report could hurt sentiment toward cyclical names.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MAIA remains a high-risk, loss-making clinical-stage story with trial progress as its main source of fundamental potential and cash burn as a major concern. The evidence is limited, and the long-term thesis remains unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Control operating losses and cash burn | A primary condition in MAIA Biotechnology Inc's published investment case. The stated target is reduce operating losses and cash burn from current negative $7M cash flow. | Broken | operating losses or cash burn worsen beyond negative $7M quarterly | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Advance clinical trials with multiple sites | A supporting condition in MAIA Biotechnology Inc's published investment case. The stated target is open and operate multiple US trial sites for THIO-101. | Improving | failure to open or maintain multiple trial sites | 2 sites opened vs multiple target MAIA opened its second US trial site for THIO-101 in June 2026, directly advancing the regulatory driver. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.12 → $1.11 · observed estimates
$0.07B → $0.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.12 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.12 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.12 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.12 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.12 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.12 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.12 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.12 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.12 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.12 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.12 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.12 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.12 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.12 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.12 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.12 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.12 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.12 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.12 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.12 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.12 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.12 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.12 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.12 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.12 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.12 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.48 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.48 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.48 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.48 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.48 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.48 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.48 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.48 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.48 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.48 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.48 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.48 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.11 | $66,267,110 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
1 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.