Mercantile Bank Corp. (MBWM)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$62.14+0.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MBWM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -9.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
MBWM — officer change
Dated 2026-03-19
Adoption of a new bonus plan for executive officers.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows steady earnings and trust from investors.
Supportive ifManagement says EPS guidance stays the same during the Q2 earnings call.
Worry ifEPS guidance is lowered during the earnings call.
Why it matters: Growing cash flow shows good performance and strong finances.
Supportive ifCash from operations rises from $28.3 million in Q1 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations drops or stays the same next quarter.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition will help Mercantile grow. It will also help reach more customers.
Supportive ifAn official announcement will confirm the acquisition is complete. It will show that approvals are met.
Worry ifThere are reports of more delays in the acquisition process.
Why it matters: Strong net interest income growth shows good loan growth and margin management. It shows the bank can handle economic challenges.
Supportive ifQ3 net interest income growth exceeds 15% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 net interest income growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings per share growth shows the bank's profit and efficiency. This can make investors feel good.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per share growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Low nonperforming assets show strong asset quality. It also shows good risk management. This can increase investor confidence.
Supportive ifNonperforming assets stay below $6 million in Q3.
Worry ifNonperforming assets rise above $7 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below its median of 15% over the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median or improves.
Why it matters: Successful integration can lead to cost savings and revenue growth. It is crucial for realizing synergies from the acquisition.
Supportive ifEastern Michigan Bank adds over $6 million in net interest income.
Worry ifNet interest income from Eastern Michigan Bank stays below $5 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$98 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $254 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,138 loss on $10,000 · 11.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.