Mechanics Bancorp (MCHB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$14.65-2.53%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MCHB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -12.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MCHB — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-19
Other Events On August 19, 2026, the Board of Directors of Mechanics Bancorp approved a cash dividend of $0.25 per share of Class A common stock and $2.50 per share of Class B common stock, each payable on September 1, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on August 29, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: Deposit costs rose from 1.25% in Q2 to 1.33% in Q3. A further rise could squeeze net interest income.
Worry ifQ4 total deposit cost rises above 1.33%, and net interest margin falls below 3.55%.
Less concerning ifQ4 deposit cost is 1.33% or lower, while net interest margin stays at or above 3.55%.
Why it matters: The board paid $0.25 per Class A share in Q3. A lower payment would mark a change in its stated capital return plan.
Worry ifThe next board dividend notice sets the Class A payment below $0.25 per share.
Less concerning ifThe next board notice keeps the Class A payment at or above $0.25 per share.
Why it matters: Delinquencies fell to 0.52% in Q3 from 0.70% in Q2. A sharp rise would undo that credit progress.
Worry ifQ4 delinquent loans exceed 0.70% of total loans, the Q2 level.
Less concerning ifQ4 delinquencies stay below 0.70% of loans and below the Q3 level of 0.52%.
Why it matters: Mechanics sold low-yield bonds and bought bonds at higher rates. Q4 results can show whether the move lifts income.
Supportive ifQ4 securities interest income rises from Q3. Net interest margin is at least 3.55%.
Worry ifQ4 securities interest income does not rise from Q3, or net interest margin falls below 3.55%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $256 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,730 loss on $10,000 · 17.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Loans fell from $13.9 billion in Q1 to $13.0 billion in Q3. Another drop could weaken loan income.
Worry ifReported total loans at December 31, 2026 are below $13.0 billion.
Less concerning ifReported total loans are at least $13.0 billion, with growth from the Q3 level.