Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Seres Therapeutics Inc (MCRB)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.090.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MCRB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Fund operations through Q1 2027 | Seres aims to fund operations through Q1 2027. | Intact | Fails to maintain funding through Q1 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-development business, not an established earnings compounder. Its long-term thesis has evidence of progress in SER-155 and lower operating expenses, but the company remains loss-making and its cash runway depends partly on funding actions.
The evidence describes MCRB as cheap versus peers, but the expectations gap is positive, meaning the market may still assume more than current fundamentals support. The valuation model has medium confidence, and the snapshot does not provide enough detail to judge how much clinical progress is already reflected in expectations.
Near term, losses are likely to remain central: Q2 operating losses were $21.3 million, while cash was $15.6 million before the runway calculation included Nestlé payments. Cost reductions are visible, and Q2 reported clinical progress, including an 80% immunosuppressive-free response at day 15 among SER-155 recipients. The next results carry notable risk, with a 48% estimated miss probability, a recent CFO transition, and continued funding needs.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on continued SER-155 progress in irEC and allo-HCT, and on whether MCRB can fund that work while extending its runway. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while stronger results and guidance from sector peers could support the broader healthcare backdrop. The evidence does not specify the timing or likelihood of these scenarios.
MCRB has tangible clinical and cost-control progress, but its multi-year view remains fragile because losses, financing needs, and execution risk outweigh the limited evidence of durable financial improvement. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Seres Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss improves from -$7.51 to better than -$6.58. |
| Improving |
| EPS loss worsens or fails to improve next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Amend Asset Purchase Agreement with Nestlé | It amended a key agreement with Nestlé. | Intact | Amendment fails or is reversed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Limit revenue decline to no worse than -57% next year | Analysts expect losses to shrink next year. | Broken | Revenue decline worse than -57% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-6.58 → $-4.94 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-6.58 | $358,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-6.58 | $358,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-6.58 | $358,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-6.58 | $358,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-6.58 | $358,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-6.58 | $358,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-6.58 | $358,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-6.58 | $358,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-6.58 | $358,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-6.58 | $358,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-6.58 | $358,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-6.58 | $358,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-6.58 | $358,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-6.58 | $358,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-6.58 | $358,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-4.95 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-4.94 | $273,500 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.