Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$121.52+0.77%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MCRI
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $122 the market pays 19× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 20× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $124 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $114–$128. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $120.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $234.17 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $241.90 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $67.02 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$114.00 – $128.00 (median $120.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-07-21
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $101.38 |
| 10.4 |
| 9.03 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $135.93 | 16.1 | 8.45 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $108.36 | 15.3 | 7.10 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $25.26 | 0.8 | 30.77 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $99.51 | 15.7 | 6.32 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $48.88 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $123.42 | 19.5 | 6.32 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $97.57 | 15.1 | 6.45 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $160.00 | 16.1 | 9.95 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $114.27 | 15.3 | 7.49 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $27.41 | 0.8 | 33.39 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $117.08 | 15.7 | 7.44 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $145.21 | 19.5 | 7.44 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $178.37 | 16.1 | 11.09 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $120.51 | 15.3 | 7.89 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $28.91 | 0.8 | 35.22 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $123.47 | 15.7 | 7.84 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $153.14 | 19.5 | 7.84 | Analyst | medium |