Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-05
$109.34-3.35%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.09 → 7.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MCRI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend remains at $0.30 per share | The company pays steady dividends of $0.30 per share. | Intact | Dividend falls below $0.30 per share | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a casino operator with a growth-and-capital-return thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The long-term thesis is intact, though the latest earnings miss and declining company momentum make the near-term picture less settled.
Valuation is described as aligned with expectations, with a modest premium versus peers and no major fragility signals. The evidence suggests expectations are not stretched, but it does not provide enough detail to judge how much future growth the valuation assumes.
Over the multi-year view, revenue and adjusted EBITDA have grown, and the company continues to return capital through dividends and share repurchases. Near term, the latest earnings miss, consecutive misses noted in the risk data, and a decline in company momentum temper that record; SG&A costs also rose even as casino operating costs stayed stable.
The next guidance update is a key swing factor: a cut would signal weaker execution, while maintained guidance would leave the current growth thesis more intact. Sector conditions also matter, with results and guidance from LVS, DKNG, and WYNN offering signals about whether the broader Consumer Discretionary tailwind continues or fades.
For the next 1 to 3 years, MCRI’s thesis rests on sustaining revenue and EBITDA growth while managing costs, despite a softer near-term earnings record. The valuation evidence is broadly aligned, but the next guidance update and sector backdrop remain important uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Net income improved from $19.9M to $27.6M. |
| Intact |
| Net income falls below $19.9M quarterly |
Net income: $32.005M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $27.6M net income quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 202632,005,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income stays strong near $35.5M quarterly | A primary condition in Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $35.5M operating income quarterly. | Broken | Operating income falls below $25.6M quarterly | Operating income: $41.275M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $35.5M operating income quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 202641,275,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 3.4% next year | A primary condition in Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3.4% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3.4% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 2.42% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3.4% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20262.41643 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.89 → $7.05 · observed estimates
$0.58B → $0.58B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.89 | $581,858,330 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.89 | $581,858,330 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.89 | $581,858,330 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.89 | $581,858,330 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.89 | $581,858,330 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.89 | $581,858,330 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.89 | $581,858,330 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.89 | $581,858,330 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.09 | $581,858,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.89 | $581,858,330 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.89 | $581,858,330 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.09 | $581,858,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.89 | $581,858,330 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.89 | $581,858,330 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.09 | $581,858,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.89 | $581,858,330 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.09 | $581,858,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.89 | $581,858,330 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.09 | $581,858,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.09 | $581,858,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.09 | $581,858,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.09 | $581,858,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.09 | $581,858,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.09 | $581,858,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.09 | $581,858,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.09 | $581,858,333 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.10 | $582,081,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.09 | $581,798,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.07 | $581,333,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.07 | $581,333,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.07 | $581,333,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.07 | $581,333,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.07 | $581,333,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.07 | $581,333,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.07 | $581,333,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.07 | $581,333,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.07 | $581,333,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.07 | $581,333,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.07 | $581,333,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.07 | $581,333,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.07 | $581,190,143 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.07 | $581,175,857 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.07 | $581,175,857 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.07 | $581,175,857 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.07 | $581,175,857 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.07 | $581,175,857 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.07 | $581,175,857 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.07 | $581,175,857 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.07 | $580,761,571 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.05 | $580,732,286 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.05 | $580,732,286 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.05 | $580,732,286 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.05 | $580,732,286 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.05 | $580,732,286 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.05 | $580,732,286 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.05 | $580,732,286 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $7.05 | $580,732,286 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.