Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$121.52+0.77%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Operating income stays strong near $35.5M quarterly: operating income not reported vs $35.5M target; trip < $25.6M.
Monarch Casino grows revenue about 9% yearly. Profit rises from $25.6M to $35.5M. Net income improved from $19.9M to $27.6M. The company pays steady dividends of $0.30 per share.
Revenue growth could slow below 3%. Profit margins might shrink. Net income may fall if costs rise.
The price is near our fair value of $127.53. Analysts expect about 3% revenue growth, less than current growth.
Breaks if: Dividend falls below $0.30 per share
Breaks if: Net income falls below $19.9M quarterly
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $25.6M quarterly
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a durable compounder with a focus on sustained revenue and EBITDA growth. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has improved but remains sensitive to broader market conditions.
The market currently reflects a low expectations gap, indicating that MCRI is priced with a slight premium compared to its peers. This suggests that investors are not overly optimistic but recognize the company's recent recovery.
Management has demonstrated strong financial performance, with revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth. However, there is a moderate risk of missing future estimates due to the high-miss-rate nature of the industry.
The long-term thesis hinges on whether MCRI can maintain its growth trajectory and manage operational efficiency. Additionally, performance of sector peers and macroeconomic factors like inflation will be critical in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 3.4% in FY26
Focus on driving revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
In the next 1 to 3 years, MCRI's performance will depend on its ability to navigate industry challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities. Not investment advice.