Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$121.52+0.77%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MCRI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers
MCRI — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-21
Other Events. On July 20, 2026, the Company announced a cash dividend of $0.30 per share of its outstanding common stock, payable on September 15, 2026, to stockholders of record on September 1, 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in margin may mean higher costs or problems in operations.
Worry ifEBITDA margin falls below 35%.
Less concerning ifEBITDA margin stays above 35%.
Why it matters: Updates on these topics can show chances for growth and future plans. Investors want to know about expansion.
Watch forManagement shares news about new capital investments or M&A plans that could boost growth.
Also watch forManagement says there are delays or stops in planned investments or M&A reviews.
Why it matters: New investments can boost growth and efficiency. This may affect future results.
Supportive ifManagement says they will invest more than $10 million.
Worry ifNo new capital investments are announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If Monarch keeps or improves its margin, it shows they are managing costs well. They are also growing revenue.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays above 37.2% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 37.2% in Q3.
Why it matters: The result will affect Monarch's money situation. It will also change future legal costs.
Watch forThe appeal results in a favorable outcome for Monarch.
Also watch forThe appeal leads to a bad result for Monarch.
Why it matters: This decision may change financial results and costs. It can affect overall performance.
Watch forA good ruling in court lowers possible financial costs.
Also watch forA bad ruling raises financial costs.
Why it matters: The payment shows Monarch's promise to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifCash dividend of $0.30 per share is paid on September 15, 2026.
Worry ifDividend payment is late or canceled.
Why it matters: Growing market share shows the company is doing well against competitors. This can lead to more money and profits.
Supportive ifMarket share increases year over year at both Atlantis and Monarch Black Hawk.
Worry ifMarket share decreases or remains flat at either property.
Why it matters: If growth exceeds 5%, it shows Monarch can keep making money despite challenges.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 5% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 2% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: This shows strong financial management. It helps build investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet income growth reported above 40% year over year.
Worry ifNet income growth reported below 40% year over year.
Why it matters: The outcome of this litigation could impact financial results and future cash flows. Investors need to monitor this risk.
Worry ifThe company shares good news about winning or settling the lawsuit.
Less concerning ifThe company gets a bad ruling or faces more costs from the lawsuit.
Why it matters: A better operating income margin shows good cost management. It helps overall profits.
Supportive ifOperating income margin is better than in Q1 2026.
Worry ifOperating income margin is worse than in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Higher capital spending could indicate confidence in future growth, but it may also strain cash flow.
Watch forSpending on projects was over $5 million in Q3.
Also watch forSpending on projects was under $5 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows that the company is strong. It also promises to return money to investors.
Supportive ifThe company announces a cash dividend of $0.30 per share for Q3.
Worry ifThe company does not declare a cash dividend for Q3.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it may signal weakening demand in the consumer sector.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 4% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth above 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Successful M&A could enhance growth and shareholder value.
Supportive ifManagement shares a final deal for an M&A transaction.
Worry ifNo news or bad news about M&A evaluations.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$87 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $225 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,586 loss on $10,000 · 15.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.