Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-05
$109.34-3.35%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MCRI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to Fed net liquidity.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MCRI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 27, 2026, the Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (the Company) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Q3 SG&A rose to 19.8% of revenue from 19.3% a year earlier. More cost growth could weigh on profit.
Worry ifSG&A is above 19.8% of revenue in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifSG&A is at or below 19.8% of revenue in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Q3 adjusted EBITDA grew 2.1%, while Q2 growth was 3.3%. A further drop would point to weaker profit growth.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA growth is below 2.1% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA grows at least 2.1% year over year.
Why it matters: A court judgment against Monarch totals $74.6 million. The appeal outcome could affect cash needs and the company’s plans.
Watch forA court overturns or lowers the $74.6 million judgment against Monarch.
Also watch forA court ruling upholds the judgment, or Monarch reports a new cash bond tied to the appeal.
Why it matters: Q3 revenue rose 2.4% year over year, down from 4.2% in Q2. Another slowdown would weaken the growth trend.
Worry ifQ4 revenue grows less than 2.4% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 revenue grows at least 2.4% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $221 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,832 loss on $10,000 · 18.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Monarch says it is weighing deals that could add long-term value. A signed deal would make this plan more concrete.
Supportive ifMonarch announces a signed M&A deal with named assets and terms.
Worry ifMonarch says it has ended its M&A review or reports no deal after two more quarterly updates.