Mister Car Wash, Inc. (MCW)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.100.00%
Close 2026-05-19 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MCW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MCW — director transition
Dated 2026-05-19
John Danhakl, J. Kristofer Galashan, Ronald Kirk, John Lai, Dovin Lively, Atif Rafiq, Veronica Rogers, Jeffrey Suer, and Jodi Taylor: Multiple directors resigned in connection with the Merger.
Why it matters: Same-store sales rose 3.9% in Q1. A drop below zero would mark a clear break from that growth.
Worry ifA quarterly report shows same-store sales below 0% from a year ago.
Less concerning ifComparable-store sales stay above 0% year over year, matching or topping Q1's 3.9% growth.
Why it matters: The sector read says consumer revenue is shrinking, while recent signals hint at a shift. Retail sales data can test that change.
Watch forThe November 17, 2026 retail sales report shows growth above 0% year over year.
Also watch forThe November 17, 2026 retail sales report shows sales fell year over year.
Why it matters: MCW went private on May 19, 2026. Its next results can show whether sales and member growth continue.
Watch forAn update shows comparable-store sales growth above 3.9% and UWC member growth above 11% year over year.
Also watch forAn update shows flat or falling comparable-store sales, or UWC member growth below 7% year over year.
Why it matters: UWC members grew 11% in Q1, up from 7% in Q4. Growth below 7% would show a slowdown.
Worry ifA quarterly update reports UWC member growth below 7% year over year.
Less concerning ifA quarterly update reports UWC member growth at or above 11% year over year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$28 on $10,000 · ±0.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $288 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,348 loss on $10,000 · 13.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The CEO said private ownership gives the company more room to invest. New openings can show how that plan takes shape.
Watch forA company update names new sites or growth spending, and the location count rises above 549.
Also watch forA company update reports no new sites and a location count at or below 549.