Mister Car Wash, Inc. (MCW)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.100.00%
Close 2026-05-19 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MCW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MCW — director transition
Dated 2026-05-19
John Danhakl, J. Kristofer Galashan, Ronald Kirk, John Lai, Dovin Lively, Atif Rafiq, Veronica Rogers, Jeffrey Suer, and Jodi Taylor: Multiple directors resigned in connection with the Merger.
Why it matters: A slowdown in net income growth may show problems in operations and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifNet income growth drops below 20% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNet income growth remains at or above 20%.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals potential issues in the consumer discretionary sector. This could impact future earnings.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median growth rate for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: Fewer new locations may mean slower growth and less chance to expand.
Worry ifFewer than 4 new locations opened in Q2 2026.
Less concerning if4 or more new locations opened in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More revenue and income show business health and growth. This matters for investors.
Supportive ifRevenue and operating income increase year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifRevenue or operating income declines or grows less than 5% year over year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$28 on $10,000 · ±0.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $275 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,290 loss on $10,000 · 22.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A fall in net income may show higher costs or less demand, which affects growth.
Worry ifNet income is reported below $34.2 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income is reported at or above $34.2 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Membership growth is key for recurring revenue. It shows customer loyalty and business health.
Supportive ifUWC memberships increase by more than 11% in the next quarter.
Worry ifUWC memberships grow less than 7% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Progress on mergers can drive growth and affect investor confidence. Investors will look for clarity on future plans.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new merger or acquisition. This fits their growth goals.
Worry ifNo new news on mergers or delays in planned acquisitions.
Why it matters: Cash flow trends will show how well the company handles money after going private.
Watch forFree cash flow exceeds $30 million in the next quarter.
Also watch forFree cash flow drops below $30 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Slower sales growth may show less demand from customers. This can hurt total revenue.
Worry ifSales growth at similar stores is below 3.9% in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifSales growth at similar stores is above 3.9% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow could impact the company's ability to invest in growth.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $70 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains at or above $79.7 million.
Why it matters: Many directors are leaving. This may change the company's strategy and operations.
Worry ifNo new directors appointed within three months post-merger.
Less concerning ifNew directors are appointed to fill key positions within three months post-merger.
Why it matters: Slower growth in Unlimited Wash Club memberships may show less customer demand.
Worry ifUWC memberships grow less than 10% year over year in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifUWC memberships grow at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in store sales growth may mean fewer customers are visiting.
Worry ifComparable-store sales growth is less than 3% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifComparable-store sales growth is at or above 3%.
Why it matters: Falling revenue growth may show problems with keeping customers and market share.
Worry ifNet revenue growth is less than 5% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNet revenue growth is at or above 5%.
Why it matters: Comments on spending may show how the company will invest after going private.
Watch forManagement shares a clear plan for spending in the next quarter.
Also watch forManagement is unclear about plans for spending.