Pediatrix Medical Group (MD)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$27.03+0.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Pediatrix aims for $280M to $300M adjusted EBITDA in 2026. The company beat Q1 EPS by 16%. Its stock trades cheap with a PE of 12.5 versus peers at 30.6. Analysts expect 2% revenue growth next year.
Operating income fell from $48.8M to $41.7M in Q1. Revenue was flat year-over-year in Q1. The company faces pressure to improve costs and efficiency.
The price is about 40% below our $44 fair value. The market expects slow 2% revenue growth. Our fair value is well above the Street median.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $280M in FY26
Continue to achieve Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $280 million to $300 million for the full year 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance despite ongoing losses.
The market seems to have priced in a cheap valuation compared to peers, with an expectations gap indicating that investors may not fully anticipate future improvements. The current pricing reflects a low confidence in the company's model, suggesting that any positive developments could lead to upward adjustments.
Management is focused on maintaining adjusted EBITDA guidance and improving operating income, with recent results showing strong revenue growth. However, operating income has seen mixed progress, indicating some challenges ahead.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and improve operating income. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers and macroeconomic conditions, such as job growth, will significantly impact MD's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 4 quarters including 2026-Q2, 2026-Q1, 2025-Q4, and a non-quarter-specific update in 2026-07-15. Pediatrix's Adjusted EBITDA was $76.4 million in 2026-Q2 and $58.2 million in 2026-Q1, with a full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA of $275.6 million. The reaffirmed guidance range of $280 million to $300 million for 2026 aligns with recent quarterly results and shows the company is delivering on this priority.
“Pediatrix reaffirms its full year 2026 outlook for Adjusted EBITDA, anticipating a range of $280 million to $300 million.”
“Pediatrix reaffirms its full year 2026 outlook for Adjusted EBITDA in a range of $280 million to $300 million.”
“Pediatrix anticipates that its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA will be in a range of $280 million to $300 million.”
Breaks if: Operating income declines below $41.7M over next year
Focus on increasing operating income through revenue growth and expense management.
Stated as a priority in 3 quarters: 2026-Q2, 2026-Q1, and 2025-Q4. Operating income was $56.9 million in 2026-Q2, slightly down from $59.9 million in 2025-Q4, reflecting some pressure despite revenue growth from $468.8 million to $487.8 million. The trajectory shows mixed progress with revenue growth but operating income slightly declining, indicating limited progress on improving operating income.
“CEO: strong results reflect favorable trends and financial flexibility to fund growth.”
“First quarter operating results exceeded expectations, driven by top-line growth.”
“Fourth quarter results in line with expectations, solid same-unit revenue growth, managing expenses.”
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 1.9% YoY next year
Overall, MD's fundamentals are showing promise, but they are subject to various external factors. Not investment advice.