Spectral AI Inc (MDAI)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.38-9.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MDAI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 90.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 119.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers
MDAI — officer change
Dated 2026-02-03
Chief Commercial Officer — Mr. Jeremiah Sparks: Mr. Jeremiah Sparks is leaving the company to pursue other opportunities.
Why it matters: The study will test if DeepView helps clinicians act sooner and use surgery more precisely. A start would mark progress beyond clearance.
Supportive ifThe company confirms the Triage and Treatment Outcome Study began in Q4 2026, as planned.
Worry ifThe company reports the study did not start in Q4 2026 or gives a later start date.
Why it matters: First sales would show that FDA clearance has led to paid use. The company has not yet reported material sales.
Supportive ifBy December 31, 2026, the company reports at least one paid U.S. DeepView placement or sale.
Worry ifThe company reports no U.S. sales by December 31, 2026, or moves its first-sale target past year-end.
Why it matters: The report comes before the year-end sales target. Any named buyer or placement would add evidence of launch progress.
Supportive ifThe November 10 report names a U.S. customer or confirms a DeepView device placement or sale.
Worry ifThe report gives no news on customers or placements, or says the first-sale target was delayed.
Why it matters: Development revenue is falling as BARDA work narrows. Meeting guidance would show other contract work can offset that decline.
Watch forFull-year 2026 revenue is about $18.5 million, in line with the company’s guidance.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 revenue falls short of $18.5 million, or the company cuts its guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$180 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $675 loss on $10,000 · 6.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,627 loss on $10,000 · 46.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company is losing money as it builds its sales team. A sharp cash drop could add pressure before sales grow.
Worry ifAt the next results, cash is below $14.0 million and adjusted EBITDA loss is worse than Q2’s $3.5 million loss.
Less concerning ifCash is at or above $14.0 million, or the adjusted EBITDA loss is smaller than $3.5 million.