Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Spectral AI Inc (MDAI)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.38-9.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MDAI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Generate first-ever commercial sales of DeepView System by end 2026 | Spectral AI aims to generate its first commercial sales of the DeepView System by end of 2026. | Improving | No commercial sales of DeepView System by end of 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Research & Development Revenue Research & Development revenue for Q2 2026 was $3.5 million compared to $5.1 million.” “2026 Guidance The Company is reiterating revenue of approximately $18.5 million for the year ending December 31, 2026, primarily reflecting the continued development of the Company’s DeepView System through the BARDA PBS Contract.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making medical technology company with a potential commercialization catalyst, rather than an established durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: management has maintained its 2026 revenue guidance, but commercial sales have not yet been realized.
The valuation signal is aligned with the model, with no low-priced fragility flags, but the company is loss-making and the expectations gap is negative. The evidence does not support a clear claim that the shares are cheap or expensive versus peers; expectations appear demanding relative to the company’s weak recent performance.
Near term, revenue may remain pressured: quarterly revenue declined from the first quarter to the second, and 2026 guidance excludes material DeepView commercial sales. FDA clearance, BARDA support, and a new Chief Commercial Officer strengthen the path toward initial sales, but have not yet produced reported revenue growth.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether MDAI begins commercial DeepView sales by year end 2026 and can build on them, while maintaining its revenue guidance. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add risk; continued earnings strength among sector bellwethers could support a more favorable healthcare backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MDAI’s thesis remains a high-risk commercialization story, with early progress in preparation but weak revenue momentum and no material commercial sales yet. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain stable and effective leadership under new CEO and CFO | New CEO and CFO bring positive leadership changes. | Intact | Additional key executive departures occur within next 12 months | 0 departures vs 0 allowed News confirms new CEO, CFO, and CCO appointments with no reports of key executive departures. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue of at least $18.5 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Spectral AI Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $18.5 million. | Intact | Revenue for FY26 falls below $18.5 million | Revenue: $3.524M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $18.5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 20263,524,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.28 → $-0.31 · observed estimates
$0.04B → $0.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.28 | $41,368,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.28 | $41,368,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.28 | $41,368,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.28 | $41,368,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.28 | $41,368,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.35 | $32,950,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.35 | $32,950,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.35 | $32,950,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.35 | $32,950,499 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.35 | $32,950,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.35 | $32,950,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.35 | $32,950,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.35 | $32,950,499 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.35 | $32,950,499 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.35 | $32,950,499 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.35 | $32,950,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.35 | $32,950,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.35 | $32,950,499 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.35 | $32,950,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.35 | $32,950,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.35 | $32,950,499 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.35 | $32,950,499 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.35 | $32,950,499 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.35 | $32,950,499 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.35 | $32,950,499 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.35 | $32,950,499 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.36 | $32,937,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.31 | $32,421,667 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.