MEDIACO HOLDING INC (MDIA)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.00+3.05%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MDIA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -78.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -20.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 58.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
MDIA — officer change
Dated 2026-10-01
Director — Andrew Glaze: The filing discloses the immediate resignation of a director, which is a genuine departure from the board but typically carries lower materiality than the departure of a C-suite executive.
Why it matters: Revenue rose 9% in Q2, while sector signals point to a headwind. Another quarter above 9% would show the growth trend is holding.
Supportive ifAt the November 18 earnings release, Q3 revenue is above $34.0 million, up more than 9% from Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is $34.0 million or less, or falls below Q3 2025 revenue.
Why it matters: Q2 Adjusted EBITDA fell 38% year over year, even as revenue grew. A rebound would show that cost cuts are helping profits.
Supportive ifThe Q3 report shows Adjusted EBITDA above $0.9 million and above the Q3 2025 result.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is $0.9 million or less, or below its Q3 2025 result.
Why it matters: EstrellaTV reported four straight quarters of audience growth, including 38% growth in Q2. A drop below last year's level would break that run.
Worry ifThe next reported quarter shows EstrellaTV P18-49 prime-time audience above the same quarter last year.
Less concerning ifThe next reported quarter shows EstrellaTV P18-49 prime-time audience at or below the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: MediaCo still owes Sigma $0.7 million in funding. Cash flow and liquidity are flagged for monitoring. That makes the next update important.
Worry ifA filing or earnings release says MediaCo funded more than the remaining $0.7 million commitment. It may also report new funding needs.
Less concerning ifA filing or earnings release confirms the commitment stayed within $0.7 million. It reports no new funding needs.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$196 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $800 loss on $10,000 · 8.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,349 loss on $10,000 · 43.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Digital made up 47% of Q2 ad sales, down from 49.5% in Q1. Holding that share would support the digital growth plan.
Supportive ifThe next earnings release says digital revenue is at least 47% of ad sales.
Worry ifThe next earnings release says digital revenue is below 47% of ad sales.