MEDIACO HOLDING INC (MDIA)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.14+3.64%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MDIA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -73.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -20.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 53.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
MDIA — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-21
President — Brian Fisher: Brian Fisher was promoted to President from Chief Revenue Officer.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would show that integration and optimization efforts are working. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue grew over 40% compared to last year. This shows good integration and optimization.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is under 30% compared to last year. This shows integration efforts are not working.
Why it matters: Sustaining revenue growth shows strong demand. It means the company is doing well with digital and advertising sales.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows progress in managing costs. It could ease worries about losses.
Supportive ifOperating income improves to less than -$5M in Q2, showing better cost control.
Worry ifOperating income is still worse than -$7M in Q2. This shows ongoing cost struggles.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows that the company is managing its money well.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow in Q2 turns positive.
Worry ifOperating cash flow in Q2 remains negative.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$299 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $723 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,327 loss on $10,000 · 63.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Lower Adjusted EBITDA shows that operations and costs are still a problem.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $1 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA is $1 million or more in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in growth could mean less audience interest. This may hurt ad revenue.
Worry ifEstrellaTV maintains a P18-49 growth rate above 30%.
Less concerning ifEstrellaTV's P18-49 growth rate falls below 30%.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows better cost management. It means less loss.
Supportive ifOperating income improves to more than -$6.21M.
Worry ifOperating income gets worse, falling below -$7.53M.
Why it matters: A drop in digital revenue share could mean trouble for growth.
Worry ifDigital revenue is less than 45% of total advertising sales in Q3.
Less concerning ifDigital revenue is at or above 47% of total advertising sales in Q3.
Why it matters: A larger net loss shows worse financial health and more operational problems.
Worry ifNet loss exceeds $9 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet loss is less than or equal to $8.6 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on funding will show how MediaCo handles cash and investments.
Watch forMediaCo confirms it will give more money to Sigma Audio Networks. This is more than $1 million.
Also watch forMediaCo says it will not give more money to Sigma Audio Networks.