MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.57-0.81%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MDU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MDU — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, MDU Resources Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a news release (the “News Release”) announcing its financial results for the second quarter of 2026. A copy of the News Release is furnished as Exhibit 99 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, which, in its entirety, is incorporated herein by reference. The Company is webcasting a conference call on August 6, 2026, to discuss its second quarter 2026 financial results, during which…
Why it matters: If the utilities sector grows again, it could help MDU. This shows a better market.
Watch forUtilities sector revenue grew more than 6% compared to last year.
Also watch forUtilities sector revenue grew less than 3% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Filing the FERC application is a key step for project approval and financing.
Supportive ifFiling of the FERC Section 7(c) application for the Bakken East Pipeline Project by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNot filing the FERC application on time would be a problem.
Why it matters: Progress on this project could show growth in industrial demand and infrastructure spending.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of major progress or new deals for the Minot Industrial Project.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the project's timeline.
Why it matters: A decision on the general rate case could impact revenue and earnings for the electric segment.
Watch forMontana plans to increase electric rates by $14.1 million each year.
Also watch forDenial of the rate case or a lower-than-requested increase.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend payout shows MDU cares about giving value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifMDU maintains a dividend payout of at least $0.14 per share in Q2.
Worry ifMDU reduces the dividend payout below $0.14 per share in Q2.
Why it matters: Getting approvals would help MDU grow and improve pipeline earnings.
Supportive ifThe FERC approved the Line Section 32 Expansion Project.
Worry ifLook out for delays or denials of key pipeline project approvals.
Why it matters: More customer growth shows strong demand and good service.
Supportive ifCustomer growth rate was over 2% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCustomer growth rate remains at or below 1% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Completion would increase capacity and revenue. This supports MDU's growth plan.
Supportive ifAnnouncement that the Minot Expansion Project is done on time.
Worry ifThere are delays in the timeline for the Minot Expansion Project.
Why it matters: Successful approvals would enhance revenue and support earnings growth for MDU.
Supportive ifApproval of at least one pending general rate case with a revenue increase.
Worry ifDenial of key rate case requests or significant delays in approvals.
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations indicates stronger financial health. It supports growth and investment plans.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported above $100 million in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations reported below $70 million in Q2.
Why it matters: The result will impact MDU's transport and storage income and total earnings.
Worry ifFERC approves new transport and storage rates for a $31 million yearly revenue boost.
Less concerning ifFERC denies the proposed rates or changes them a lot, affecting revenue plans.
Why it matters: Customer growth affects how stable revenue is. Steady growth helps the company's long-term plan.
Supportive ifCustomer growth is more than 2% each year.
Worry ifCustomer growth is less than 1% each year.
Why it matters: A decision to proceed would confirm strong customer interest and support growth plans.
Supportive ifA final decision on the Bakken East Pipeline Project will be announced by late 2026.
Worry ifIf no decision is made by late 2026, there may be issues with customer commitments.
Why it matters: Finalizing agreements would show strong demand. This would help the project's finances.
Supportive ifSigning more agreements for the Bakken East Pipeline Project beyond the current 40%.
Worry ifNo new agreements signed. This shows weak interest in the project.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating this number shows strong performance.
Watch forQ2 earnings per share reported at or above $0.93.
Also watch forQ2 earnings per share reported below $0.93.
Why it matters: Strong operating income growth would support MDU's goal to increase profits. It shows the company is managing costs well.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income grew more than 5% compared to last year.
Worry ifOperating income fell below 0% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Changes in revenue growth trends can impact MDU's performance and outlook in a maturing sector.
Watch forSector revenue growth is speeding up again, reaching 5% or more.
Also watch forSector revenue growth is slowing down, falling below 5%.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It can help build trust with investors.
Supportive ifThe company says the dividend payout will stay the same for Q2.
Worry ifMDU announces a cut to the dividend payout for Q2.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$68 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $215 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,417 loss on $10,000 · 14.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.