MiMedx Group, Inc. (MDXG)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.28+2.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MDXG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MDXG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 28, 2026, MiMedx Group, Inc. (the “ Company ”), issued a press release (the “ Earnings Press Release ”) announcing its results for the second quarter of 2026. A copy of the Earnings Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition”, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, and shall not be…
Why it matters: MiMedx returned to positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q3 and expects a higher Q4 result. That would test whether cost cuts are taking hold.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is higher than Q3 2026 and remains positive.
Worry ifQ4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is flat or lower than Q3, or turns negative.
Why it matters: Medicare payment changes drove a sharp Wound sales drop. A recovery in care-center volume may help show that demand is shifting.
Watch forWound sales fall less than 71% year over year, and Wound Care Center volume keeps growing sequentially.
Also watch forWound sales fall 71% or more year over year, or Wound Care Center volume drops sequentially.
Why it matters: The deal would nearly double surgical revenue. FTC clearance and closing are still pending.
Watch forFTC grants HSR clearance and MiMedx closes the Sanara deal by December 31, 2026.
Also watch forFTC clearance is denied, the deal ends, or it remains open after December 31, 2026.
Why it matters: FDA decisions could open paths for two pipeline products. The company says both submissions remain under review.
Watch forFDA clears both 510(k) submissions for marketing.
Also watch forFDA rejects either submission, or asks for more data that delays a decision.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $422 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,124 loss on $10,000 · 61.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Surgical made up nearly two-thirds of sales, with mid-teens volume growth. Continued gains matter as total sales fell sharply.
Supportive ifSurgical sales rise year over year in the next reported quarter, after the 9% gain in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSurgical sales are flat or lower year over year in the next reported quarter.