Medpace (MEDP)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
$591.29-0.35%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MEDP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
MEDP — President transition
Dated 2026-06-04
Executive Vice President, Operations — Brad W. Hansman: Brad W. Hansman was promoted to Executive Vice President, Operations.
Why it matters: A drop in EBITDA margin may mean higher costs or problems in operations.
Worry ifEBITDA margin was below 21.4% in Q3.
Less concerning ifEBITDA margin was above 22.0% in Q3.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below this range, it could signal slowing demand or operational issues.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 10.9% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 14.0% year over year.
Why it matters: Better growth in operating income shows better cost management. It also means more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income grew by over 40% compared to last year.
Worry ifOperating income growth remains below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in net income margin may mean costs are rising. It could also mean pricing pressure, which affects profits.
Worry ifGAAP net income margin reported below 17.2% in Q3.
Less concerning ifGAAP net income margin reported above 18% in Q3.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$112 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $294 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,661 loss on $10,000 · 36.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The new President's plans may affect Medpace's growth and operations.
Watch forThe new President announced strategic plans or changes.
Also watch forThe new President did not announce any major changes or plans.
Why it matters: A drop below this level may raise worries about profits and strategy.
Worry ifNet income growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifNet income growth remains above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop below this level could indicate a slowdown in new contracts, impacting future revenue.
Worry ifNet new business awards reported below $700 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet new business awards reported above $800 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A change in leadership may change company strategy. This can affect how investors feel.
Watch forA new President is appointed and publicly announced by Q3 2026.
Also watch forNo new President is appointed by Q3 2026, leaving the CEO in the role.
Why it matters: A slowdown in share repurchases may show a change in spending priorities.
Worry ifShare repurchases were below $100 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifShare repurchases were above $200 million in Q3.