Medpace (MEDP)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
$634.98-3.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MEDP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MEDP — President transition
Dated 2026-06-04
Executive Vice President, Operations — Brad W. Hansman: Brad W. Hansman was promoted to Executive Vice President, Operations.
Why it matters: Backlog turns into reported revenue over time. A sharp drop in conversion could slow sales growth even with a large backlog.
Watch forQuarterly backlog conversion stays at or above 23.8%.
Also watch forQuarterly backlog conversion falls below 23.3%, the Q1 2026 rate.
Why it matters: Awards above revenue add to the work waiting to be done. Awards below revenue can point to a smaller future workload.
Watch forQuarterly net new business awards exceed revenue. The book-to-bill ratio is above 1.0x.
Also watch forQuarterly net new business awards are below revenue. The book-to-bill ratio is below 1.0x.
Why it matters: That would meet the low end of Medpace's latest revenue forecast. A lower result would show the forecast was missed.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue is at least $2.835 billion.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue is below $2.835 billion.
Why it matters: The board approved a larger share plan, but the company made no repurchases in Q3. Actual purchases would show the plan is in use.
Supportive ifA filing or results report shows share repurchases under the new plan by December 31, 2028.
Worry ifA future results report shows no repurchases, or the board suspends or ends the plan.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $311 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,661 loss on $10,000 · 36.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Revenue growth fell from 26.5% in Q1 to 8.5% in Q3. The health care sector signal also points to slower growth.
Watch forQuarterly revenue growth rises above 8.5% year over year.
Also watch forQuarterly revenue growth is at or below 8.5% year over year.