Methode Electronics, Inc. (MEI)
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.69+2.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MEI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -69.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 76.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MEI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-06-24
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 24, 2026, Methode Electronics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended May 2, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached hereto pertaining to the Company’s financial results shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities…
Why it matters: Getting Adjusted EBITDA between $72M and $82M shows better profits. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2027 lands between $72M and $82M as reported in the next earnings call.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $72 million in the next report.
Why it matters: Free cash flow consistency is key for financial health. A significant drop could indicate cash management issues.
Watch forFree cash flow was much higher than in fiscal 2026.
Also watch forFree cash flow was much lower than in fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this sales target shows the company is on track for growth in fiscal 2027. It confirms management's guidance and growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales reported at $1,025 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 net sales reported below $1,025 million.
Why it matters: Keeping EBITDA guidance shows the company is stable and managing costs well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA remains in the range of $72 million to $82 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is now less than $72 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$270 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,010 loss on $10,000 · 10.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,444 loss on $10,000 · 44.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Falling short of this target would indicate challenges in growth and demand. It would raise concerns about the company's ability to execute its strategy.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 net sales were below $1,025 million.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2027 net sales were above $1,075 million.
Why it matters: Free cash flow consistency signals financial health. It is crucial for funding operations and growth.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported remains consistent with fiscal 2026 levels in the next earnings report.
Worry ifFree cash flow shows a significant decline compared to fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: This report shows how the company is doing. It is important for future growth.
Watch forQ3 earnings report shows better sales and profit numbers.
Also watch forQ3 earnings report shows lower sales or bigger losses.
Why it matters: Keeping capital spending between $25 million and $30 million shows careful spending. This helps growth.
Supportive ifCapital spending was between $25 million and $30 million for fiscal 2027.
Worry ifCapital spending was over $30 million for fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: If sector growth slows, it could hurt Methode's sales. This is important for future performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth has been below its median for two months in a row.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above its median for two consecutive months.
Why it matters: Confirming sales guidance shows the company is on track for growth. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 net sales confirmed between $1,025 million and $1,075 million.
Worry ifSales guidance is now below $1,025 million.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can recover from the recent earnings miss. This impacts market perception.
Watch forEarnings results show a big improvement from last quarter.
Also watch forEarnings results show another miss or decline in revenue.