MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.95+0.90%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MFA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -54.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MFA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-18
Results of Operations and Financial Condition and
Why it matters: Higher earnings before losses mean the company makes more money. It also shows good performance.
Supportive ifEarnings before losses are over $36.7 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifEarnings before losses are below $36.7 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A rise in operating income shows better performance. This is important for future growth.
Supportive ifOperating income goes back to being positive, over $3 million in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income stays negative or drops more in Q2.
Why it matters: A better net interest spread means more profit from the investment portfolio.
Supportive ifNet interest spread reported above 1.56% for Q3.
Worry ifNet interest spread falls below 1.56% in Q3.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the positive trend continues after the recent earnings beat.
Supportive ifEarnings per share is over $0.25. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifEarnings per share falls below $0.15, suggesting a decline in performance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$87 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $217 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,646 loss on $10,000 · 16.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends is important for investor trust. A change may mean financial problems.
Worry ifDividend payment remains stable at $0.36 per share for Q2.
Less concerning ifDividend payment falls below $0.36 per share. This may show potential issues.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to MFA's strategy. A drop would raise concerns about future performance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $191 million. This shows slower growth.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue was above $191 million. This shows continued growth.
Why it matters: A stable or rising economic book value shows the company’s asset quality and health.
Supportive ifEconomic book value reported above $13.20 per common share for Q3.
Worry ifEconomic book value falls below $13.20 per common share in Q3.
Why it matters: Cutting the dividend shows financial trouble. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifManagement maintains the dividend at $0.36 per share without cuts.
Less concerning ifManagement says they will reduce the dividend payment.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift for MFA in a maturing sector.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the real estate sector exceeds 7% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Slow growth in the investment portfolio shows trouble in making more money.
Worry ifInvestment portfolio grows less than $535 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifInvestment portfolio grows by $535 million or more.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth helps the company grow. It also boosts investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported above $191.9 million.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below $191.9 million.
Why it matters: More delinquencies could mean worse asset quality. This may hurt future earnings.
Worry ifDelinquencies over 60 days are more than 7.8%. This shows loan performance is getting worse.
Less concerning ifDelinquencies drop below 7.3%. This suggests loan performance is getting better.
Why it matters: Paying dividends shows that a company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifMFA pays a cash dividend of $0.36 per common share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifMFA cuts or suspends the cash dividend in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If the default rate goes up, it shows worse credit quality in the portfolio.
Worry ifThe portfolio-wide default rate exceeds 7.0% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifThe default rate remains at or below 7.0% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in distributable earnings means less money to make.
Worry ifDistributable earnings fall below $0.12 per share in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifDistributable earnings stay at or above $0.12 per share in Q3 2026.