MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.61-0.45%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MFA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -50.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -63.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
MFA — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-08
CEO — Craig L. Knutson: The filing announces the planned retirement of the CEO with a named internal successor (Bryan Wulfsohn) already appointed, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: MFA’s total balance sheet spread narrowed from 1.64% in Q1 to 1.56% in Q2. A wider spread can support earnings.
Watch forThe next reported total balance sheet net interest spread rises above 1.64%.
Also watch forThe next reported spread falls below 1.56%.
Why it matters: MFA plans to name Wulfsohn CEO and Kail CIO on January 1, 2027. Their appointments will test the planned leadership handoff.
Watch forMFA confirms both Wulfsohn and Kail take their named roles on January 1, 2027.
Also watch forMFA says either planned appointment is delayed, replaced, or changed.
Why it matters: Q2 distributable earnings fell to $0.12 per share from $0.30 in Q1. The Q3 report will show if earnings recover.
Watch forQ3 distributable earnings reach at least $0.30 per share, matching or topping Q1.
Also watch forQ3 distributable earnings stay at or below $0.12 per share.
Why it matters: Delinquencies fell from 7.8% in Q1 to 7.0% in Q2. More progress would support the credit trend.
Supportive ifThe next reported 60+ day delinquency rate is below 7.0%.
Worry ifThe next reported rate rises above 7.8%, the Q1 level.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$98 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $242 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,831 loss on $10,000 · 38.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.