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MGE Energy, Inc.NASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$77.66+1.25%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is neutral, indicating some challenges in MGEE's financial health. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach to managing resources. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, although MGEE trades above typical levels compared to its peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Utilities - Regulated Electric
- Market cap
- $2.90B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2002-11-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $77.66. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$74.61consensus
Range $60.91 – $74.64
vs price: +4% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$72.11consensus
Range $57.77 – $89.61
vs price: +8% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfull
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $78 MGEE trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median. Our $75 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
19.9x
peer 19.1x · own history 24.1x
Premium
1.0x peer
0.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
4%
our forecast 3%
Our fair value
$74.61
range $59.91 – $74.64
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 4% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated weak grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
27th pctl · Utilities
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.86x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
39th pctl · Utilities
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish1 analysts, 25% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.80 → $0.81 (+1.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -7.3% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: utilities is in maturing, with stable trajectory (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$95.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$209.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,905.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 7d
Watch for Q2 earnings results on August 5, 2026
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company addressed its recent earnings miss. This can affect investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings are higher than expected. This shows a recovery.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings fall short of expectations again. This shows ongoing problems.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MGEE yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for utilities to grow revenue faster than 7% year over year.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for MGEE and other Utilities names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NEE, SO, and DUK keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Utilities sector momentum should keep lifting MGEE and other Utilities names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If MGEE raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If MGEE cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NEE, SO, and DUK start missing or guiding lower, the Utilities tailwind helping MGEE and other Utilities names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, MGE Energy, Inc. (the Company) issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 earnings. The Company is furnishing a copy of that press release as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. This combined Form 8-K is being furnished separately by the Company and Madison Gas and Electric Company. Information contained herein relating to any individual registrant has been furnished by such registrant on its own behalf. Neither registrant…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-14 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.