Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
MacroGenics Inc (MGNX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.22-3.90%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MGNX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Extend cash runway through 2028 | MacroGenics aims to extend cash through 2028 by selling assets. | Intact | Cash runway does not extend through 2028 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk clinical development company, not an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with pipeline milestones underway and management executing on the manufacturing sale, but financial evidence of broad pipeline delivery is limited.
The valuation signal points to MGNX as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative; in this model, expectations appear cautious rather than demanding. Confidence in that comparison is low, and the low fragility reading does not remove the risks tied to losses and clinical development.
Near term, results may remain uneven: second-quarter revenue rose, but the release tied the increase mainly to a Sanofi regulatory milestone, not pipeline product sales. Management has reported cash runway through 2028 and completed the manufacturing sale, while the benefits of a leaner operating model remain prospective; elevated risk and a 40% estimated miss probability make the next report worth watching.
The multi-year thesis hinges on clinical progress translating into stronger evidence of pipeline delivery, while maintaining the stated runway through 2028. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would weigh on the setup; continued strong results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, MGNX has an intact but high-risk long-term thesis: cash and restructuring milestones provide support, while losses and limited proof of pipeline-driven revenue remain central constraints. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in MacroGenics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.04 in FY26. |
| Broken |
| EPS remains negative in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize and grow revenue after expected decline | A primary condition in MacroGenics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue decline less than -29% in next 12 months. | Under Pressure | Revenue decline exceeds -29% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve $20M milestone payment for ZYNYZ sales | It targets a $20 million milestone from ZYNYZ sales in 2026. | Improving | Milestone payment falls short of $20 million in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.23 → $-1.64 · observed estimates
$0.10B → $0.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.23 | $102,825,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.23 | $102,825,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.23 | $88,260,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.23 | $88,260,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.23 | $88,260,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.23 | $88,260,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.41 | $94,260,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.41 | $94,260,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.23 | $88,260,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.41 | $94,260,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.41 | $94,260,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.41 | $94,260,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.41 | $94,260,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.23 | $88,260,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.23 | $88,260,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.41 | $94,260,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.41 | $94,260,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.41 | $94,260,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.41 | $94,260,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.41 | $94,260,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.23 | $88,260,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.23 | $88,260,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.23 | $88,260,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.23 | $88,260,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.23 | $88,260,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.23 | $88,260,400 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.53 | $98,346,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.53 | $98,346,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.53 | $98,346,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.53 | $98,346,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.53 | $98,346,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.53 | $98,346,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.53 | $98,346,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.53 | $98,346,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.53 | $98,346,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.53 | $98,346,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.53 | $98,346,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.53 | $98,346,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-1.64 | $90,606,600 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.