McGrath RentCorp (MGRC)
NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$111.59+1.54%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MGRC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
MGRC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026, McGrath RentCorp (the “Company”) announced via press release the Company’s results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. This Form 8-K and the attached exhibit are provided under
Why it matters: If rental revenue keeps growing, it shows strong demand and success. This is important for stable revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 rental revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 rental revenue growth falls below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on CAPEX will indicate how the company is investing for growth in 2026.
Watch forManagement gave a good update on CAPEX plans for 2026.
Also watch forManagement cuts or delays the CAPEX guidance for 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in rental revenue is key for McGrath's overall performance. Mobile Modular is a major segment.
Supportive ifMobile Modular rental revenues grow year over year by more than 2%.
Worry ifMobile Modular rental revenues decline year over year or grow less than 2%.
Why it matters: Re-accelerating revenue growth could signal a shift in the maturing phase of the sector. This would support McGrath RentCorp's growth potential.
Supportive if3-year revenue growth in the industrial sector rises above 7%.
Worry if3-year revenue growth in the industrial sector stays below 5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$79 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $245 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,381 loss on $10,000 · 23.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Sales revenue trends affect profits and show market demand.
Worry ifSales revenues in Q3 decrease year over year by more than 20%.
Less concerning ifSales revenues in Q3 increase year over year or decline less than 20%.
Why it matters: The company expects total revenue of $945 to $995 million for 2026. Confirmation or revision will show if they are on track.
Watch forManagement confirms Q2 revenue guidance within the range of $945 to $995 million.
Also watch forManagement cuts Q2 revenue guidance to less than $945 million.
Why it matters: The company plans $180 to $200 million in CAPEX for 2026. Higher spending could signal growth initiatives.
Supportive ifCAPEX reported above $200 million for 2026.
Worry ifCAPEX reported below $180 million for 2026.
Why it matters: The new credit agreement may change financial flexibility. Changes could affect growth plans.
Watch forCredit agreement terms are better. This allows for easier borrowing.
Also watch forCredit agreement terms worsen, leading to higher costs or restrictions.
Why it matters: If sales revenue recovers, it shows better market conditions and project work. This is key for making money.
Supportive ifSales revenue in Q3 increases year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifSales revenue in Q3 decreases year over year.
Why it matters: This report will give important details about revenue and EBITDA.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue and EBITDA in line with or exceeding guidance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows big misses on revenue and EBITDA goals.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good operations and strong finances. It makes investors feel safe.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 2026 is more than $363 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $363 million.
Why it matters: Management noted potential project delays due to macro conditions. This could affect revenue and growth.
Worry ifThere are big project delays in key markets. This affects revenue forecasts.
Less concerning ifThere are no project delays. This shows stable market conditions.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue guidance shows confidence in the business, even with recent drops.
Supportive ifManagement confirms revenue guidance of $955 to $985 million for 2026.
Worry ifManagement cuts revenue guidance from $955 million to $985 million.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how much money a company makes. Meeting this target means good operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is reported at $90 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is less than $85 million.
Why it matters: Sales growth in TRS-RenTelco shows strong demand for electronic test equipment. This impacts revenue.
Supportive ifTRS-RenTelco sales revenues increase year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifTRS-RenTelco sales revenues decline year over year or grow less than 10%.
Why it matters: Using this credit facility helps with funding growth and spending.
Watch forManagement says a large part of the $725 million credit facility is for growth.
Also watch forManagement says there is little or no use of the new credit facility.