Magnolia Oil & Gas, Corp. (MGY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$26.80-1.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MGY
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $27 MGY trades at 12× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $31 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $29–$38. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $33.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $32.59 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $34.19 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $4.78 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$29.00 – $38.00 (median $33.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-08-17
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 6% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 0.2 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.72/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $24.69 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $32.42 | 5.6 | 5.55 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $34.91 | 12.3 | 2.85 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $32.39 | 10.2 | 3.16 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $16.01 | 2.0 | 8.02 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $18.96 | 8.1 | 2.33 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $16.26 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $42.43 | 17.9 | 2.38 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $31.56 | 12.3 | 2.58 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $42.51 | 10.2 | 4.15 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $37.43 | 2.0 | 18.74 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $33.80 | 8.1 | 4.15 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $29.51 | 12.3 | 2.41 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $56.22 | 10.2 | 5.49 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $49.50 | 2.0 | 24.79 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $44.70 | 8.1 | 5.49 | Analyst | medium |