Magnolia Oil & Gas, Corp. (MGY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$26.80-1.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MGY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 49.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 61.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MGY — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-08-05
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information required by
Why it matters: Deals can boost growth. They can also increase interest in valuable assets.
Supportive ifNew deals were announced in areas with high returns.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Staying within capital spending guidance shows good financial control. This helps long-term growth.
Supportive ifIn Q3 2026, capital spending is expected to be between $440 million and $480 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 capital spending is over the $480 million limit.
Why it matters: If energy sector revenue growth speeds up, it could help Magnolia's performance. It may signal a sector recovery.
Supportive ifEnergy sector revenue growth rises back toward 6% or higher.
Worry ifEnergy sector revenue growth is still under 6%.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company values its shareholders. It also shows the company is stable.
Supportive ifThe dividend payment is made as scheduled on September 1, 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is delayed or canceled.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $330 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,769 loss on $10,000 · 27.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More acquisitions would show Magnolia's plan to grow in high-return areas.
Supportive ifNew bolt-on acquisitions announced for more than $100 million.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced by the end of Q2.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show that management believes in the company's finances. They want to return cash to shareholders.
Supportive ifMagnolia plans more share buybacks beyond the current 9.9 million shares.
Worry ifNo new share buybacks will happen in the next quarter.
Why it matters: An increase shows that Magnolia manages its cash well. It also cares about its shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.165 per share.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced in Q2.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating production goals helps Magnolia grow and work better.
Supportive ifAverage daily production remains at or above 106.1 Mboe/d in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAverage daily production falls below 100 Mboe/d in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A confirmed dividend increase shows strong cash flow and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the dividend increase to $0.18 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifManagement retracts the dividend increase or keeps it at $0.165 per share.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows efficiency and helps with future investments and returns.
Supportive ifNet cash from operations is over $384 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet cash from operations falls below $384 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More working interest shows Magnolia's focus on growth. It also shows a push for efficiency.
Supportive ifNews of new acquisitions or more working interest in key areas.
Worry ifNo news of acquisitions or working interest increases in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in cash from operations signals weaker financial health. This affects dividend plans.
Worry ifQ2 cash from operations falls below $197.62M.
Less concerning ifQ2 cash from operations stays the same or goes up over $197.62M.
Why it matters: The new debt issuance could affect cash flow and financial stability. Monitoring its impact is crucial.
Watch forNet cash from operations goes up after issuing the new senior notes.
Also watch forNet cash from operations goes down or stays the same after the new senior notes.
Why it matters: Closing the acquisition will greatly increase Magnolia's land and production. This could help future growth and profits.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes as planned by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed beyond Q3 2026 or fails to close.
Why it matters: Acquisitions can increase Magnolia's assets. They can also raise production.
Supportive ifLook for news about more acquisitions in Giddings or Karnes.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if production growth and cash flow are on track.
Watch forEarnings are over $0.40 per share. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings drop below $0.30 per share. This shows operational issues.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating production growth goals shows strong operations. This builds investor confidence.
Supportive ifProduction growth in Q3 2026 meets or exceeds 6% year-over-year.
Worry ifProduction growth falls below 6% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This debt will fund the WildFire acquisition, affecting leverage and cash flow.
Worry ifDebt issuance is done well, and the company keeps a good debt-to-equity ratio.
Less concerning ifDebt issuance causes a big rise in leverage or a drop in credit rating.