Magnolia Oil & Gas, Corp. (MGY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$23.52+0.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MGY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 70.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 90.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MGY — capital allocation — The issuance of shares of common stock was completed in reliance upon the exe…
Dated 2026-09-14
The issuance of shares of common stock was completed in reliance upon the exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act, provided by Section 4(a)(2) thereof as a transaction by an issuer not involving any public offering.
Why it matters: The sector signal says energy revenue is shrinking, though recent data hints at a turn. Positive growth would support the sector backdrop for Magnolia.
Supportive ifThe sector’s three-year revenue growth turns above 0%.
Worry ifThe sector’s three-year revenue growth stays below 0%.
Why it matters: This is Magnolia’s stated growth plan for the combined company. Results below it would challenge the case for steady growth after the deal.
Watch for2027 oil and total production each grow 4% or more from the stated Q2 2026 pro forma base.
Also watch for2027 oil or total production grows less than 4% from that base.
Why it matters: This is the first report after WildFire closed. It will show how the combined business starts against its Q4 plan.
Watch forQ3 production is 116–118 Mboe/d and D&C spending is $155–$165 million, as guided.
Also watch forQ3 production is below 116 Mboe/d or D&C spending is above $165 million.
Why it matters: The company plans to cut debt while paying dividends and repurchasing shares. Progress would test whether cash flow can support all three.
Supportive ifNet debt to EBITDA falls to 0.5x or lower. Magnolia keeps its dividend and quarterly share repurchases.
Worry ifNet debt to EBITDA rises above 1.0x. Or Magnolia pauses its dividend or planned share repurchases.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$151 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $363 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,778 loss on $10,000 · 27.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q4 is the first full quarter with WildFire. Meeting this range would show the larger asset base is adding planned output.
Supportive ifReported Q4 production is at least 159 Mboe/d, with oil at 49% or more.
Worry ifReported Q4 production is below 159 Mboe/d or oil is below 49%.