Magnolia Oil & Gas, Corp. (MGY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$26.80-1.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Magnolia Oil & Gas keeps capital spending within $440-$480 million for 2026. It beat earnings with $0.54 EPS in Q1 and shows steady revenue growth of 2% year over year. The company has a strong free cash flow yield of 8%.
The stock is selling off with a 19% drop from its high. Analysts expect revenue growth to slow to 12%, and forward EPS estimates decline in 2027. Capital spending discipline may not offset sector headwinds.
The price is about 11% above our fair value near $23, which is 28% below the Street median target of $32. Analysts expect 12% revenue growth, but our model sees slower growth ahead.
Breaks if: CAPEX exceeds $480 million or falls below $440 million in FY26
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.95 in FY26
Revenue growth falls below 12% next 12 months
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady production growth and shareholder returns. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial results and ongoing management priorities.
The market currently prices MGY as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not fully account for the company's strong recent performance and disciplined capital management.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, given management's commitment to production growth and disciplined capital spending. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations, particularly as industry peers have faced challenges recently.
The long-term thesis hinges on MGY's ability to maintain production growth and manage capital effectively. Additionally, external factors like inflation rates and performance of sector bellwethers will play a significant role in shaping the company's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. Additionally, the company aims to maintain and grow production with 6% growth guidance for 2026.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MGY appears well-positioned within its sector, but it must navigate potential risks carefully. Not investment advice.