Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Magnolia Oil & Gas, Corp. (MGY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$23.52+0.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.02 → 3.09 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MGY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain capital spending within $440-$480 million for 2026 | Magnolia Oil & Gas keeps capital spending within $440-$480 million for 2026. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $480 million or falls below $440 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $125.129M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: CAPEX between $440 million and $480 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026125,129,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an energy producer with a cyclical sector backdrop, rather than a pure growth story. The long-term thesis is intact, though the signal has eased from favorable to mildly favorable and confidence is medium.
MGY is described as cheap versus peers, while the model shows a meaningful gap between expectations and its assessment. The priced-in risk is low: the main pressure is a turbulent sector, rather than a combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.
Near term, recent financial performance is strong: second-quarter production grew 8% year over year and management raised 2026 production growth guidance to 6%. Capital spending remains guided within its stated range, while dividend growth and share repurchases show continued cash returns; execution on spending is mixed. Near-term miss risk is considered low, but past industry misses and a prior deep miss remain relevant cautions.
The multi-year view depends on MGY sustaining production growth and disciplined capital spending while carrying out its cash-return plans. Near term, a reversal of recently raised guidance would hurt credibility, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the energy-sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MGY’s thesis rests on continued operating delivery and a supportive sector, with valuation described as cheap versus peers but confidence only medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS growth near $2.95 for FY26 |
| It beat earnings with $0.54 EPS in Q1 and shows steady revenue growth of 2% year over year. |
| Improving |
| EPS falls below $2.95 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.97 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.95. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20260.97 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 12% for next 12 months | A supporting condition in Magnolia Oil & Gas, Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY revenue growth. | Improving | Revenue growth falls below 12% next 12 months | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.78 → $3.09 · observed estimates
$2.07B → $2.73B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.78 | $2,072,637,663 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.49 | $2,687,755,580 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.49 | $2,687,755,580 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.89 | $2,273,660,880 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.49 | $2,687,755,580 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.33 | $2,687,755,580 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.33 | $2,687,755,580 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.32 | $2,686,412,370 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.96 | $2,351,535,880 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.32 | $2,686,412,370 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.32 | $2,686,412,370 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.32 | $2,686,412,370 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.96 | $2,351,535,880 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.96 | $2,351,535,880 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.99 | $2,351,535,880 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.99 | $2,351,535,880 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.31 | $2,685,502,370 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.99 | $2,351,535,880 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.21 | $2,579,120,320 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.99 | $2,351,535,880 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.99 | $2,351,535,880 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.99 | $2,351,535,880 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.99 | $2,351,535,880 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.99 | $2,351,535,880 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.99 | $2,351,535,880 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.99 | $2,351,535,880 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.05 | $2,500,264,479 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.05 | $2,500,264,479 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.05 | $2,500,264,479 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.05 | $2,500,264,479 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.05 | $2,500,264,479 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.05 | $2,500,264,479 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.05 | $2,500,264,479 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.05 | $2,500,264,479 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.05 | $2,500,264,479 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.05 | $2,500,264,479 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.05 | $2,500,264,479 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.05 | $2,500,264,479 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.05 | $2,500,264,479 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.05 | $2,500,264,479 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.06 | $2,505,362,019 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.06 | $2,515,476,017 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.06 | $2,515,476,017 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.04 | $2,520,133,253 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.04 | $2,520,133,253 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.04 | $2,520,133,253 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.04 | $2,522,337,425 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.04 | $2,522,337,425 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.04 | $2,522,337,425 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.04 | $2,520,674,184 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.04 | $2,520,674,184 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.04 | $2,520,674,184 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.10 | $2,520,674,184 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.10 | $2,530,585,949 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.10 | $2,530,585,949 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.10 | $2,530,585,949 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.10 | $2,530,585,949 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.10 | $2,530,585,949 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.10 | $2,530,585,949 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.05 | $2,530,191,832 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.05 | $2,530,191,832 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.05 | $2,530,191,832 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.08 | $2,530,191,832 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.08 | $2,530,191,832 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.08 | $2,530,191,832 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.08 | $2,530,191,832 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.08 | $2,530,191,832 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.08 | $2,530,191,832 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.08 | $2,530,191,832 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.12 | $2,602,743,537 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.14 | $2,687,883,210 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.13 | $2,690,672,551 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.13 | $2,690,672,551 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.02 | $2,688,599,984 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.02 | $2,696,278,166 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.02 | $2,696,278,166 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.02 | $2,696,278,166 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.02 | $2,696,278,166 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.03 | $2,696,278,166 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.03 | $2,696,278,166 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.03 | $2,696,278,166 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.00 | $2,690,003,047 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.00 | $2,698,042,052 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.03 | $2,718,195,273 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.03 | $2,718,195,273 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.03 | $2,722,361,939 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.09 | $2,722,361,939 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.11 | $2,724,449,784 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.09 | $2,725,456,228 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.09 | $2,725,456,228 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.12 | $2,735,895,117 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.12 | $2,735,895,117 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.12 | $2,735,895,117 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.12 | $2,735,895,117 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.12 | $2,735,895,117 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.09 | $2,734,335,903 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.09 | $2,734,335,903 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.09 | $2,734,335,903 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.09 | $2,734,335,901 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.09 | $2,734,335,901 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.09 | $2,734,335,901 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.09 | $2,734,335,901 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.09 | $2,734,335,901 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-05 | $3.09 | $2,734,335,901 | 11 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.