Mastech Digital Inc (MHH)
AMEXIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.45+1.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MHH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MHH — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: This segment's performance reflects client spending and the impact of insourcing. It shows overall health.
Worry ifTalent segment revenue falls over 16.2% compared to last year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTalent segment revenue stays the same or increases compared to last year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping enough cash is important for Mastech's changes and financial health.
Watch forCash increases to over $60 million after Q3.
Also watch forCash drops below $54 million after Q3.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could help Mastech Digital's performance. This would indicate a positive shift in the market.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping cash on hand is important for flexibility. It shows good financial health during tough times.
Supportive ifLiquidity stays above $56 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLiquidity drops below $54 million in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$161 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $465 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,114 loss on $10,000 · 31.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Monitoring client spending will help gauge the impact of macroeconomic factors on Mastech's revenue. It is key for understanding future revenue trends.
Watch forManagement reports a clear rise in client spending on AI projects.
Also watch forManagement says clients are still cautious. Spending is flat or going down.
Why it matters: Management's plan to address the earnings miss is crucial for investor confidence. Their actions will indicate how they plan to improve performance.
Supportive ifManagement shares clear steps to boost operating income. This will happen in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement provides vague or no response to the earnings miss during the earnings call.
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings will show if the company can recover from the recent earnings miss. Investors will look for signs of improvement in revenue and profitability.
Watch forQ2 revenues show a year-over-year increase from Q1's $41.0 million.
Also watch forQ2 revenues drop more compared to last year. Q1 was $41.0 million.
Why it matters: Progress on this project may show Mastech's ability to adapt and grow.
Supportive ifManagement shares big progress or important steps in the EDGE project.
Worry ifManagement reports delays or problems in the EDGE project.
Why it matters: Bookings growth shows strong demand for services. This supports the transformation strategy.
Supportive ifTotal bookings exceed $13.5 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal bookings fall below $13.5 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The EDGE initiative aims to boost growth and efficiency. Its success shows if Mastech can make more money.
Supportive ifManagement reports a 10% rise in gross margins. This is due to the EDGE initiative.
Worry ifGross margins drop more. This shows the initiative is not giving the expected results.
Why it matters: Growth in this segment signals success in the AI-led transformation plan. It shows demand for AI services.
Supportive ifData & AI segment revenue grows more than 7.2% sequentially in Q3 2026.
Worry ifData & AI segment revenue declines or grows less than 7.2% sequentially in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The success of the realignment into Talent and Data & AI segments is crucial for future growth. It reflects how well the company adapts to market needs.
Supportive ifManagement reports a big rise in new bookings. TCV is over $10 million for the next quarter.
Worry ifNew bookings are below $5 million. This shows the realignment is not working.
Why it matters: A new lease could signal growth and expansion plans. Delays may indicate management struggles.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a signed lease for new office space within the next quarter.
Worry ifNo progress on the lease agreement by the end of Q3.