Reading MHK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MHK free→Reading MHK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MHK free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, though MHK trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $107.64. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $108 MHK trades at 12× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $155 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $109–$156. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 31% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.81x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.57 → $2.58 (+0.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 15 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 31% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 3 guided quarters · 3.5% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$147.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$343.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,250.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how well Mohawk is managing costs amid rising input prices. It helps investors gauge future earnings potential.
Confirms:The company confirms adjusted EPS guidance between $2.50 to $2.60 for Q2 2026.
Disproves:The company lowers its adjusted EPS guidance below $2.50 for Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MHK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 11, 2026, Mohawk Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”) approved the appointment of Paul F. De Cock as Chief Executive Officer of the Company and as a Director on the Company’s Board, effective September 30, 2026 (the “CEO Transition Date”). Mr. De Cock will succeed Jeffrey S. Lor…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$109.00 – $156.00 (median $135.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-05-05
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Home Furnishings.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MHK Mohawk Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SGI Somnigroup International | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ALH Alliance Laundry Holdings, Inc. | — | expensive | moderate |
LZB La-Z-Boy, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LEG Leggett & Platt | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Enhance results through productivity actions and previously announced restructuring projects.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income increased from $96.0M in 2025-Q1 to $111.8M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in productivity and restructuring efforts. The trajectory shows delivering results.
“CEO: 'We are implementing productivity actions and executing our previously announced restructuring projects to enhance our results.'”
“CEO: 'Our earnings benefited from productivity, restructuring initiatives, product mix and lower interest expense.'”
Continue to launch new product collections with industry-leading designs and features to enhance sales and margins.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net sales increased from $2.5B in 2025-Q1 to $2.7B in 2026-Q1, reflecting the impact of new product launches. The trajectory indicates delivering on product innovation.
“CEO: 'We are continuing to launch our new product collections, with industry-leading designs and features to enhance our sales and margins.'”
Focus on strategic capital allocation to strengthen the company's financial position.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash and cash equivalents increased from $856.1M in 2025-Q4 to $872.3M in 2026-Q1, indicating a focus on strengthening the financial position. The trajectory shows delivering on capital allocation.
Continue efforts to manage costs and improve operational efficiency.
Why it matters: Price increases are a direct response to rising costs. They can improve margins if accepted by consumers.
Confirms:The company is raising prices in many product types.
Disproves:The company says price increases are turned down or do not affect sales much.
Why it matters: Innovation helps revenue grow. Updates can show future sales performance.
Confirms:New product launches or updates are announced that help revenue growth.
Disproves:No new product announcements or updates that impact revenue growth.
Why it matters: Cost management is a top priority. Progress here can improve profit margins.
Confirms:Operating income goes up by more than 10% from Q1 2026.
Disproves:Operating income decreases or grows less than 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 12, 2026, Mohawk Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a New Credit Agreement (as defined hereafter), and, substantially contemporaneously therewith, the Company terminated all outstanding commitments and repaid all outstanding obligations under that certain Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of October 18, 2019 (as amended, restated, supplemented or otherwise modified prior to the date hereof), among the Company a…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information provided in
and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. On April 30, 2026, Mohawk Industries, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release to report the Company’s earnings for the fiscal quarter ended April 4, 2026, which is attached to this report as Exhib…
The excerpt is incomplete and does not provide specific details about the management change.
“CEO: 'Our premium product launches delivered differentiated design and performance features to incentivize remodeling.'”
“CEO: 'Our strong balance sheet provides strategic and operational flexibility to take advantages of opportunities that arise.'”
“CEO: 'We continue to take the proper actions to manage the present environment, pursue profitable growth opportunities and strengthen our position.'”