Markel Group Inc (MKL)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$1826.72-0.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MKL
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1,827 MKL trades at 1.2× p/b, below its 1.7× p/b peer median. Our $1,895 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $2284.48 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $2556.34 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $1950.90 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $2594.26 | 1.7 | 1509.25 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $1139.75 |
| 6.8 |
| 168.23 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $1569.83 | 14.0 | 112.08 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $1759.52 | 1.4 | 1231.86 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $1502.00 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $1869.94 | 16.7 | 112.08 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $1698.71 | 14.0 | 121.28 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $3462.48 | 1.7 | 2014.34 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $938.17 | 6.8 | 138.47 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $1538.06 | 14.0 | 109.81 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $1695.78 | 1.4 | 1187.23 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $1832.09 | 16.7 | 109.81 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $4197.29 | 1.7 | 2441.83 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $824.01 | 6.8 | 121.62 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $1500.69 | 14.0 | 107.14 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $1654.57 | 1.4 | 1158.38 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $1787.58 | 16.7 | 107.14 | Analyst | high |