Markel Group Inc (MKL)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$1826.72-0.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MKL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MKL — CEO transition
Dated 2026-02-26
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer — Michael R. Heaton: Michael R. Heaton is leaving the company after a mutual agreement.
Why it matters: Restructuring news can show how well the company is growing and staying responsible.
Watch forManagement says the new structure is working better.
Also watch forNo good updates on performance. This may mean the restructuring is not working.
Why it matters: Steady growth shows the company can grow in its markets.
Supportive ifQ3 organic revenue growth is above 7.5%. This matches management's goals.
Worry ifQ3 organic revenue growth is below 5%. This shows possible market problems.
Why it matters: Better underwriting profits show Markel's plan is working. This can help investor trust.
Supportive ifQ3 combined ratio drops below 95%.
Worry ifQ3 combined ratio stays above 100%.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Markel's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below its median over the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above its median for the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$69 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $170 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,010 loss on $10,000 · 20.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it signals a slowdown in the sector.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth drops below the median of 15%.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth stays at or above the median of 15%.
Why it matters: Changes in capital discipline metrics can show shifts in financial plans.
Watch forThe 5-year average pre-tax return on tangible capital is more than 26%.
Also watch forThe 5-year average pre-tax return on tangible capital is less than 24%.
Why it matters: Better underwriting profits show that management's efforts are working. This can help investors.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, net income is over $1 billion. This shows strong underwriting results.
Worry ifNet income stays under $500 million. This shows ongoing problems with underwriting profits.
Why it matters: Strong growth means Markel is doing well in its main areas.
Supportive ifOrganic revenue growth reported at 8% or more.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth falls below 5%.